经济政策不确定性与企业跨境并购:影响与讨论  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Cross-border M&A of Chinese Enterprises:Impact and Discussion

作　　者：尹达 綦建红[2] Yin Da;Qi Jianhong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2020年第12期105-117,M0004,共14页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’国家金融生态多元化对中国海外投资效率的影响研究”(项目批准号:17ZDA040)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：文章基于2001~2018年Zephyr全球并购交易分析库和Wind上市公司数据库构建了中国跨境并购企业的微观样本,采用Baker等(2016)的BBD指数研究了全球经济政策不确定性对中国企业跨境并购的影响,并进一步讨论了内外差异、非市场动机、区位变化和传导机制。研究结果显示,全球经济政策不确定性上升对中国企业跨境并购成功率和并购规模均有显著的抑制作用,即使在一系列稳健性与内生性检验后,这一结论依然成立。文章进一步研究发现,企业跨境并购同样离不开稳定的内部环境,避险投资倾向并不明显;在对非市场动机和投资区位的考察中,无论是以避税为目的的跨境并购还是向高收入国家与港澳台地区的跨境并购,同样会因经济政策不确定性上升而受到抑制;在传导机制中,资产可逆性是经济政策不确定性影响企业跨境并购的关键所在,为实物期权理论解释提供了补充性证据。This paper uses Zephyr M&A database,Wind database and BBD index of Baker et al.(2016)during the period of 2001~2018 to analyze the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on Chinese enterprises’cross-border M&A,and further discusses the domestic and international differences of uncertainty,non-market-oriented motives,location change and transmission mechanism.The results show that the rise of global economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on both success rate and scale of cross-border M&A,which remains robust after various robustness checks and endogeneity test.Further considering domestic uncertainty index,it indicates that cross-border M&A activities need a stable internal environment,and the tendency of hedging against risk by M&A is not obvious.By analyzing non-market-oriented motives and location changes,we find that M&A for tax avoidance as well as that to high-income countries and Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan regions,will be restrained due to the increase of economic policy uncertainty as well.For the transmission mechanism,asset reversibility is a key factor when firms react to increased uncertainty,which provides supplementary evidences for real option theory.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 跨境并购 并购成功率 传导机制 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理] F279.2[经济管理—国民经济] F125