考虑外部环境和个体采信程度的谣言传播模型  

Rumor spreading model considering external environment and individual credibility

作　　者：周子龙 文兴超 孙琦现 韩兆焱 关艾 胡煜寒[1] ZHOU Zilong;WEN Xingchao;SUN Qixian;HAN Zhaoyan;GUAN Ai;HU Yuhan(School of Science,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁科技大学理学院,辽宁鞍山114051

出　　处：《辽宁科技大学学报》2020年第6期473-477,共5页Journal of University of Science and Technology Liaoning

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅项目(2020LNJC11);辽宁科技大学大学生创新创业训练计划(202010146116)。

摘　　要：外部环境变化和个体差异性均会导致谣言传播的时空异质性。在经典SIR模型的基础上,考虑到外部环境和个体对谣言不同采信程度的因素,建立了一个新的谣言传播模型,计算了基本再生数,对谣言暴发的最终规模进行了分析和预测。研究表明,降低人群中具有易信谣特性个体的比例以及人群中的传谣率,能够有效控制谣言传播的规模,减少谣言传播带来的危害。Varying external environment and individual difference cause the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rumor propagation.On the basis of the classic SIR model,a new rumor propagation model is established by considering the factors of external environment and individuals’acceptance levels to rumors.With the new model,the basic reproduction number is calculated,and the final outbreak scale of rumor is analyzed and predicted.The results show that the scale and the harm of rumor propagation can be effectively controlled by reducing the proportion of individuals who tend to trust rumors easily and the rate of rumor propagation in the population.

关 键 词：谣言传播模型 SIR模型 基本再生数 最终规模 

分 类 号：O175.26[理学—数学]