基于改进CREAM扩展法的驾驶转向人因失误率预测  

Prediction of human error rate in driving steering based on improvement of extended method in CREAM

作　　者：李娜[1] 郭进利[1] 郭曌华 LI Na;GUO Jinli;GUO Zhaohua(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;School of Mechanical Engineering,University of Shanghai for Sciencen and Techondogy,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]上海理工大学机械工程学院,上海200093

出　　处：《上海理工大学学报》2020年第6期582-589,共8页Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571119)。

摘　　要：交通信号灯控制的交叉口是事故的高发地带,驾驶人驾驶车辆在这样的路口进行转向任务,其人因失误可能会引发严重的交通事故。为有效评估驾驶转向中的人因可靠性,在认知可靠性与失误分析(CREAM)扩展法的基础上,结合决策与实验室方法(DEMATEL)为共同绩效条件(CPC)赋予权重,改进人因失误率中总权重因子的计算公式,定量预测驾驶人人因失误率。验证改进方法的合理性,并与改进前的方法进行对比分析。结果表明,改进后的CREAM方法预测人因失误率更加符合实际情况。该方法为以后驾驶人人因失误率定量化研究提供借鉴,对于提高驾驶安全、降低交通事故率也具有重要意义。The intersection controlled by traffic lights is a high incidence zone.Human error may cause serious traffic accidents if the driver drives the vehicle to turn at such an intersection.In order to effectively evaluate the reliability of human factors in driving steering,on the basis of the cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM),the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method is combined as the common performance conditions(CPC)to give weight.The formula of the total weight factor in the human error rate is improved to quantitatively predict the human error rate.The rationality of the method is verified and a comparative analysis with the method before the improvement is made.The results show that the improved CREAM method is more in line with the actual situation.This study provides a reference for the future quantitative study of the driver's error rate,which is also of great significance for improving driving safety and reducing the accident rate.

关 键 词：认知可靠性与失误分析 车辆转向 认知 人因失误 

分 类 号：X914[环境科学与工程—安全科学]