湖南省近56年降水变化趋势及空间特征  

Trends of Precipitation Variations and Their Spatial Patterns in Hunan Province Over 56 Years(1960-2015)

作　　者：符静 旷微 邓运员[1,2] 田亚平[1,2] 赵莎 FU Jing;KUANG Wei;DENG Yun-yuan;TIAN Ya-ping;ZHAO Sha(National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory on Digital Preservation and Innovative Technologies for the Culture of Traditional Villages andTowns,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang Hunan 421002,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Digitalization of Cultural Heritage in Traditional Villages and Towns,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang Hunan 421002,China)

机构地区：[1]衡阳师范学院传统村镇文化数字化保护与创意利用技术国家地方联合工程实验室,湖南衡阳421002 [2]衡阳师范学院古村古镇文化遗产数字化传承湖南省协同创新中心,湖南衡阳421002

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期110-119,共10页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(411771150);湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(19A062,19B078);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(CX1703).

摘　　要：为揭示季风气候区降水变化规律,基于湖南省87个气象站点1960-2015年逐月降水数据,利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验、GIS空间分析等方法研究了区域年、季尺度降水的时空特征.结果表明:近56 a,湖南省年降水量增幅为0.8334 mm/a,春、夏、秋、冬四季降水变化幅度分别为-0.971,1.3937,-0.1991,0.6336 mm/a.湖南省年度及春季降水量空间变化大致呈自东南向西北递减趋势,夏季大致呈自东南、西北向中部递减趋势,秋季一定程度上呈自东南向西北递增趋势,冬季呈明显的自东南向西北递减趋势.年尺度Pa显示,湖南省2002年为中涝,2011年为中旱,其余绝大部分为正常年;季尺度Pa表明,除了春季,其余季节均有中度及以上旱情或雨涝.湖南省降水未来趋势反持续性的区域比重略高于持续性的区域比重,且未来呈增加趋势的分布范围更大.In order to deepen the understanding of how precipitation changes in the monsoon climate zone,based on the meteorological data of 87 weather stations in Hunan Province from 1960 to 2015,various methods,e.g.linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test,GIS spatial analysis and Hurst exponent,were used to determine the spatial-temporal distribution pattern and trend of precipitation and to interpret climate anomalies by combining precipitation percent departures.The results indicated that during the 56 years,the precipitation of the study area increased with an average annual speed of 0.8334 mm per year,and precipitation in spring,summer,autumn and winter was found to change at a rate of-0.971,1.3937,-0.1991 and 0.6336 mm per year,respectively;that geographically,average annual precipitation generally showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest inside our study area and,to some degree,the distribution of precipitation in spring was similar to the pattern of annual precipitation;in summer,the precipitation displayed a downward trend from southeast and northwest to the central area;precipitation in autumn presented an upward trend from southeast to northwest to some extent;and in winter,precipitation showed a significant declining trend from southeast to northwest.Annual precipitation percent departures showed that moderate waterlogging occurred in 2002,and moderate drought happened in 2011.Also,seasonal precipitation percent departures displayed that moderate or severe or extreme drought or waterlogging were observed for all seasons except for spring.Hurst exponent revealed that the future trend of precipitation shifting from increasing to decreasing or from decreasing to increasing would be more probable than that of steadily decreasing or increasing,and that the proportion for 60.63%of the total area was categorized as an upward trend in the future.

关 键 词：降水 趋势 时空特征 HURST指数 湖南省 

分 类 号：P462[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]