我国金融压力对工业增长的动态影响研究  

Research on the Dynamic Influence of Financial Stress on Industrial Growth in China

作　　者：沈丽[1] 刘晴 SHEN Li;LIU Qing(Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250002,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,济南250002

出　　处：《山东工商学院学报》2021年第1期56-67,共12页Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新常态初期区域金融风险生成机理及防控对策研究”(16BGL052)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国金融压力对工业增长的动态影响日益凸显,给经济新常态下维持工业持续稳定增长带来了挑战。从银行部门、证券市场、保险市场和外汇市场选取共11个指标分别测度了我国不同金融部门的压力,在此基础上采用CRITIC客观赋权法对我国金融压力进行了测度和分析,进一步运用非线性Granger因果关系检验方法、广义脉冲响应函数分析以及方差分解方法对我国金融压力对工业增长的动态影响机制进行了实证检验。研究发现,我国金融压力对工业增长具有显著的负向影响,我国金融压力对工业增长施加影响的渠道是金融体系的各个主要部门。其中,银行部门和证券市场子压力会对工业增长产生更为强烈的负向冲击且持续时间长,工业增长的预测方差变动在长期内也主要由银行部门子压力和证券部门子压力来解释。In recent years,the dynamic impact of China's financial pressure on industrial growth has become increasingly prominent,which brings challenges to the maintenance of sustained and stable industrial growth under the new normal of the economy.A total of 11 indicators from the banking sector,securities market,insurance market and the foreign exchange market are selected to measure the pressure of different financial sector in our country,and then the CRITIC objectively method is adopted for the measurement and analysis of the financial pressure in our country.Furthermore,based on the empirical test,nonlinear Granger causality test method,analysis of the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition method are respectively employed to examine our country financial pressure on the dynamic effect mechanism of industrial growth.It is found that China's financial pressure has a significant negative impact on industrial growth,and it the the major sectors of the financial system is channels through China's financial pressure exerting its influence on industrial growth.Among them,the sub-pressures of the banking sector and the securities market will have a stronger negative impact on the industrial growth for a long time,and the variance of the prediction of industrial growth will also be explained mainly by the sub-pressure of the banking sector and the sub-pressure of the securities department in the long run.

关 键 词：金融压力 工业增长 非线性Granger因果检验 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] P424.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]