中国交通部门低碳排放措施和路径研究综述  

A review of low-carbon measurements and transition pathway of transport sector in China

作　　者：袁志逸 李振宇[3] 康利平 谭晓雨[5] 周新军 李晓津[7] 李超[3] 彭天铎 欧训民[1,2,8,9] YUAN Zhi-Yi;LI Zhen-Yu;KANG Li-Ping;TAN Xiao-Yu;ZHOU Xin-Jun;LI Xiao-Jin;LI Chao;PENG Tian-Duo;OU Xun-Min(Tsinghua University-Zhang Jiagang Joint Institute for Hydrogen Energy and Lithium-Ion Battery Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Research Center of Urban Transport and Urban Railway,China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation,Beijing 100020,China;Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China;Railways Science&Technology Research&Development Center,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;Research Center of Civil Aviation High Quality Development,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources,Energy and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Research Center for Contemporary Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学-张家港氢能与先进锂电技术联合研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [3]交通运输部科学研究院城市交通与轨道交通研究中心,北京100029 [4]能源与交通创新中心,北京100020 [5]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028 [6]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司铁道科学技术研究发展中心,北京100081 [7]中国民航大学民航高质量发展研究中心,天津300300 [8]清华-力拓资源能源与可持续发展研究中心,北京100084 [9]清华大学现代管理研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第1期27-35,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发专项(2018YFE0202004);国家自然科学基金项目(71774095,71874096);清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心(CIDEG)2020年度重大课题《中国氢能发展战略研究》。

摘　　要：为实现2℃全球温升控制目标,中国交通部门亟待低碳转型。分析了当前交通部门的温室气体排放现状和发展趋势,结合已有减排措施的减排潜力和减排成本,探究中国交通部门未来低碳发展的可能路径。在未来若干年,中国交通部门碳排放将长期保持较快增长,其中道路运输在总排放中的占比仍然较高,而民航运输碳排放增速最快。现有减排措施主要可分为交通运输结构优化、颠覆性交通技术、替代燃料技术和交通工具能效提升四类。为实现交通部门低碳转型,需采用更加严格的燃料经济性标准,推广替代燃料技术,并引导交通运输向低碳运输方式转变,实现结构优化。To limit global warming well below 2℃,transport sector needs to be deeply decarbonized in China.This paper presents a review analysis of current greenhouse gas emission and future trend of transport sector,and a discussion about the low carbon pathways based on the potentials and costs of different mitigation strategies.Greenhouse gas emissions from transport sector will keep increasing rapidly in future several years.Road transport remains the highest proportion,while emission from civil aviation enjoys the most rapid growth.The available mitigation options can be categorized into four groups:structural changes including new customer behavior and demand,disruptive technologies including autonomous vehicles,alternative fuel technologies and fuel economy improvement.To decarbonize transport sector,stricter fuel economy standards should be implemented,alternative fuel vehicles should be prompted and feasible measures should be adopted to lead the structural transition.

关 键 词：交通部门 低碳转型路径 中国 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]