我国集成电路领域重要技术发展趋势和技术预见浅析  

Analysis on the development trend and technology foresight of national integrated circuit technology

作　　者：余文科[1] 李芳 程媛[1] 赵琦 Yu Wen-ke;Li Fang;Cheng Yuan;Zhao Qi(Chinese Institute of Electronics,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电子学会,北京100036

出　　处：《今日科苑》2020年第11期10-20,共11页Modern Science

基　　金：中国科协创新战略研究院科研项目“集成电路产业技术预见研究”(项目编号:2019ysl-1-2-1)。

摘　　要：集成电路对国家科技创新发展、新旧动能转换、经济转型升级具有重大意义。本文对集成电路领域发展愿景、产业现状需求进行了分析,以文献分析、专利计量分析和对其他国家预见成果的吸收提炼作为研究基础,结合专家研讨,确定备选技术预见初步清单。通过德尔菲调查和统计分析,对集成电路领域技术的重要性、实现时间、研发水平和制约因素进行分析,提出面向2035年集成电路领域的关键领域和重要技术群,为开展面向未来的集成电路领域技术发展战略研究提供重要的参考。Integrated circuits are of great significance to national technological innovation and development,the transformation of kinetic energy from old to new,and economic transformation and upgrading.This article analyzes the development vision of the integrated circuit field and the needs of the industry's current situation.It uses document analysis,patent measurement analysis,and the absorption and extraction of existing predictions from other countries as the research basis,combined with expert discussions,and determine a preliminary list of alternative technologies.Through Delphi survey and statistical analysis,the importance,implementation time,R&D level and restrictive factors of the technology in the integrated circuit field are analyzed,and key areas and important technologies in the integrated circuit field for 2035 are proposed to provide important reference for the strategic development research of the future-oriented integrated circuit field technology.

关 键 词：集成电路 技术预见 技术清单 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]