考虑船位预测不确定性的船舶碰撞危险度计算方法  

Ship collision risk calculation method considering uncertainty of ship position prediction

作　　者：王少博[1] 张英俊[1] 胡鑫 WANG Shaobo;ZHANG Yingjun;HU Xin(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国舰船研究》2021年第1期114-120,共7页Chinese Journal of Ship Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB1601502);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目项目(3132019313)。

摘　　要：[目的]船舶碰撞是威胁智能船舶航行安全的主要因素。船舶碰撞危险度计算模型应及时发现船舶航行中潜在的碰撞风险,为智能船舶的自主避让决策提供依据。[方法]首先,根据船舶领域侵入程度与侵入时间等参数,分析基于领域的碰撞危险参数计算模型,将航行场景划分为单船会遇局面和本船与船舶群组的会遇局面,给出一种新的多船会遇情况下的碰撞危险参数计算模型;其次,基于维纳过程对船位预测不确定性进行建模,根据卡方分布获取船位预测不确定性椭圆;最后,给出考虑船位预测不确定性的碰撞危险参数计算方法。[结果]该计算模型能够考虑船位预测不确定性对船舶碰撞危险的影响。[结论]可以进一步保障智能船舶的海上航行安全。[Objectives]Ship collision is one of the main factors threatening the navigation safety of intelligent ships. A calculation model of ship collision risk should identify potential collision risks in time and provide the basic information for the intelligent ship’s autonomous collision avoidance decisionmaking.[Methods]This paper first analyzes the domain-based collision risk parameter calculation model according to the degree of domain violation and other parameters. The navigation scene is divided into a single-ship encounter situation and an encounter between a ship and target ship group, and a new collision risk parameter calculation model for multi-ship encounters is given. Second, based on the Wiener process, the uncertainty of ship position prediction is modeled and obtained according to the Chi-squared distribution. Finally,a calculation method for collision risk parameters which considers the uncertainty of ship position prediction is given.[Results]On this basis, the influence of ship position prediction uncertainty on ship collision risk is considered. [Conclusions]This method can further guarantee the safety of intelligent ships at sea.

关 键 词：智能船舶 碰撞危险 不确定性 维纳过程 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]