浑善达克沙地地上净初级生产力动态及对气候变化的响应  

Dynamics of above-ground net primary production and its response to climate change in the Hunshandake sand

作　　者：李永利 张存厚[2] 王英 张立 温建伟 LI Yongli;ZHANG Cunhou;WANG Ying;ZHANG Li;WEN Jianwei(Meteorological Information Centre,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Weather Bureau,Hohhot 010051,Inner Mongolia,China;Centre of Ecology and Agricultural Meteorology,Inner Mongolia Weather Bureau,Hohhot 010051,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区气象信息中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《草业科学》2021年第1期1-10,共10页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2019MS04006);内蒙古自治区科技计划重点项目(201802123)。

摘　　要：利用2004-2018年多伦县生态气象观测站牧草观测资料,对CENTURY模型进行参数初始化和适用性检验,模拟了浑善达克沙地1961-2018年地上净初级生产力(above-ground net primary production, ANPP)动态。模型检验结果显示,观测值与模拟值的决定系数R2=0.78,斜率b=1.04,P <0.01,误差平方根值为25.23 g·m^-2,平均绝对百分比误差为45.76%。检验结果表明,CENRUTY模型可以较好地模拟浑善达克沙地地上生物量的动态变化。通过对1961年以来研究区气候变化的分析,发现该地区年平均气温与年极端最高气温均呈增加态势,且增加趋势显著,增加速率分别为0.4和0.3℃·(10 a)^-1。年降水量与生长季降水量年际波动较大,变化趋势均不明显。ANPP年际间波动明显,但无明显变化趋势。通过因子分析法发现,增温是沙地气候变化的主要特征;Pearson相关分析表明,ANPP与生长季降水量、年极端最高气温呈极显著相关关系,牧草主要生长季降水量与年极端最高温度是影响浑善达克沙地ANPP的关键气象因子。Using pasture observation data in an ecological meteorological field trial observatory in Duolun County during the period from 2004-2018,model parameters were initialized,model applicability was successfully tested,and the dynamic changes in simulated above-ground net primary production(ANPP),during 1961-2018,were studied in the Hunshandake sand.Model correction and validation results showed that the R2 for the comparison of observed and simulated above-ground biomass was 0.78,slope b was 1.04,P was less than 0.01,the root mean square error was 25.23 g·m^-2 and the ratio of the absolute mean error was 45.76%.The model test results indicated that the CENTURY model can simulate dynamic changes in above-ground biomass in the Hunshandake sand.The climatic variations since 1961 in this study area were analyzed in this paper.The results indicated that the annual average temperature and extreme annual maximum temperature had an obvious increasing trend;the rates of increase were 0.4℃·(10 a)^-1 and 0.3℃·(10 a)^-1 respectively.Annual and growing seasonal precipitation and ANPP did not show significant tendency of variation.Factor analyses showed that increasing temperature was the main characteristic of effect of climate change in sand.Pearson correlation analysis indicated that ANPP was highly significantly correlated with the main growing season precipitation and extreme annual maximum temperature,which were critical meteorological factors affecting ANPP in the Hunshandake sand.

关 键 词：CENTURY模型 ANPP 地上生物量 参数初始化 模型检验 因子分析 相关分析 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]