高分辨率区域模式降水预报在云南的检验  

Verifications of high-resolution regional numerical model precipitation forecast in Yunnan Province

作　　者：赵宁坤[1] 张秀年[1] 孙俊奎 邹阳 ZHAO Ningkun;ZHANG Xiunian;SUN Junkui;ZUO Yang(Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034;Kunming Meteorological Beabu,Kunming 650506)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,昆明650034 [2]昆明市气象局,昆明650506

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2021年第1期78-86,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-068);云南省科技计划项目(2018BC007)。

摘　　要：为了解高分辨率区域数值模式降水预报在云南的预报效果和误差特点,针对华南中尺度模式、华东区域数值预报业务模式和中央气象台GRAPES-Meso模式对2017年9月—2018年12月云南降水预报进行检验分析。结果表明:华东模式降水预报效果整体最好,其降水的振幅接近实况,晴雨准确率也是最高,而华南和GRAPES模式空报率和漏报率普遍偏高。三种模式对滇东北、滇中西部、滇西北北部≥0.1 mm降水预报评分普遍较低,对滇南、滇西南、滇西边缘地区的评分普遍较高。在滇东北北部、滇中西部、及滇西北北部地区三种模式对≥10 mm降水TS评分普遍较低。对于≥25 mm降水,华东模式和华南模式在滇中、滇西地区的TS评分高于GRAPES模式。对于≥50 mm降水,华东模式和华南模式在滇东南、滇西南、滇西边缘及金沙江河谷沿线TS评分高于GRAPES模式。对于云南强降水天气过程,≥0.1 mm降水华南模式预报效果较好,但10 mm和25 mm以上量级降水华东模式的预报效果较好,≥50.0 mm则是GRAPES模式更具参考价值。In order to understand the prediction effect and error characteristics of high-resolution regional numerical model precipitation prediction inYunnan Province,the precipitation prediction of Huanan,Huadong and GRAPES-Meso model from September 2017 to December 2018 was verify.The results show that Huadong model has the best overall rainfall prediction results.The amplitude of its precipitation is close to the real situation,and the accuracy rate of sunny and rain is also the highest.The empty report rate and missed report rate in Huanan and GRAPES models are generally high.The three models generally have lower scores for precipitation forecast of≥0.1 mm in northeastern Yunnan,central and western Yunnan,and northwestern Yunnan,and generally higher scores in southern Fujian,southwestern Yunnan,and western Yunnan.In the northeastern part of Yunnan,the central and western parts of Yunnan,and the northwestern part of Yunnan,the TS scores of≥10 mm precipitation were generally lower.For the≥25 mm precipitation,the Huadong and Huanan have higher TS scores than the GRAPES model in the central and western Yunnan.For the≥50 mm precipitation,there are relatively high scoring areas along the southeastern Yunnan,southwestern Yunnan,western Yunnan,and Jinshajiang river valleys.For the strong precipitation weather in Yunnan,the prediction effect of the Huanan with≥0.1 mm precipitation is better,but the prediction effect of the Huadong with the magnitude of 10mm and 25 mm is better,and≥50.0 mm is more reference value for the GRAPES model.

关 键 词：区域数值模式 降水预报检验 TS评分 云南 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]