基于PMI分解的新冠肺炎疫情对制造业的冲击评估  

China’s Manufacturing Loss Assessment During the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on PMI Decomposition

作　　者：韦庆明 张苗苗 冯馨 Wei Qingming;Zhang Miaomiao;Feng Xin(Business School,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022,China;International Business School,Xi’an Jiaotong-liverpool University,Suzhou 215123,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,常州213022 [2]西交利物浦大学国际商学院,苏州215123

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2021年第3期117-124,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“高维数据下基于实时对照方法的质量控制研究”(项目编号:71702044);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“高维数据下产品小批量生产的质量控制研究”(项目编号:17YJC630167)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情对我国制造业造成了严重的冲击,就疫情的影响进行定量评估对建立科学的疫情防控机制具有重要意义。本文运用X13-A-S季节调整模型对我国制造业PMI指数进行分解,研究各成分在新冠肺炎疫情期间的波动,分析疫情的动态演化并构建本底趋势线,分别从需求与供给角度评估疫情对我国制造业的冲击。研究结果表明:X13-A-S模型对PMI指数季节调整效果较好,趋势-循环因素分为快速增长和稳定增长两个时期,季节成分呈现“三波峰,三波谷”的波动态势,不规则成分异常值波动与新冠肺炎疫情冲击相对应;疫情期间制造业PMI指数、需求侧和供给侧分别损失14.68%、21.83%、23.􀆰14%,对内需的冲击小于供给;新冠肺炎疫情对需求的冲击滞后于供给,均呈现出“先报复式反弹-后短暂回落”的复苏态势。China’s manufacturing industry has greatly damaged by the COVID-19.It is of great importance to evaluate the epidemic impact for the scientific prevention mechanism.In this article we use X-13A-S model to decompose China’s manufacturing PMI,study the volatility of sub-composition in COVID-19 and epidemic dynamic evolution process.In addition,we build the nat⁃ural trend line to make loss assessment from the perspective of demand and supply.The results show that:X-13A-S model has a good effect on the adjustment of the index,the trend-cycle factor is divided into two periods of rapid growth and steady growth.Seasonality’s fluctuation is significantly characterized by“three peaks and three valleys”and outliers are corresponding to the im⁃pact of epidemic.The PMI,demand and supply of manufacturing industry lost 14.68%,21.83%and 23.14%respectively,and the impact on domestic demand is less than that on supply.In addition,the impact of the COVID-19 on demand lags behind the supply,showing a recovery trend of“rebound first and then short-term decline”.

关 键 词：制造业PMI指数 供需差异 X13-A-S模型 本底趋势线 新冠肺炎疫情 移动假日效应 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F713.53[经济管理—市场营销]