基于实时电网拓扑的母线负荷预测技术研究  

Study on Bus Load Forecasting Technology Based onReal Time Network Topology

作　　者：唐鹤 周俊宇 骆国铭 TANG He;ZHOU Junyu;LUO Guoming(Foshan Power Supply Bureau,Guangdong Power Grid Company,Foshan 528000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局,广东佛山528000

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2021年第2期76-79,共4页Microcomputer Applications

摘　　要：介绍母线及以母线为基础的断面和各类主设备短期负荷曲线精准预测、预警技术,给出了短期负荷预测的研究思路、方法和实现逻辑,构建了负荷预测系统。通过电网深度拓扑解析,实时分析构成母线负荷特征的全部元素,对各构成元素历史负荷数据智能拟合,形成负荷预测曲线并叠加,最终拟合生成预测对象的96点负荷曲线,并利用负荷态势预测结果对断面及设备重过载预警信息进行发布。The sections of bus bar and the equipment based the bus bar are introduced,and all kinds of main equipment of accurate short-term load curve forecasting,early warning technology are all illustrated.This paper gives the thought,the method and implementation logic for studying the short-term load forecasting,constructs the load forecasting system.Through the deep analysis of the grid topology,real-time analysis of all elements of bus load characteristics,the intelligent fitting of historical load data,a curve of load forecasting and overlay is formed,eventually,the 96-point load curve of the object is obtained.The heavy load situation forecast results are used to release the cross section and equipment overload warning information.

关 键 词：负荷预测 母线 电网拓扑 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]