基于ARIMA模型的降水空间特征分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Precipitation Spatial Characteristics Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：胡盈 吴静[1] HU Ying;WU Jing(Faculty of Geomatics,East China University of Technology,330013,Nanchang,PRC)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学测绘工程学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《江西科学》2021年第1期99-104,共6页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41601416,41861052);东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016101)。

摘　　要：为了掌握未来降雨量的变化趋势,利用2010—2019年江西省主要的16个气象站点逐月降雨量数据进行降水空间特征分析,并基于ARIMA预测模型对江西省2020—2021年的逐月累计降雨量进行预测。根据拟合度结果得出具有模型预测准确度较高,说明该模型预测结果可以科学有效地提升水资源管理、规划及保护等各方面的能力,同时也证明了降水预测模型在现实使用中是可靠的。In order to grasp the trend of future rainfall,this study uses the monthly rainfall data of 16 major meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2019 to analyze the spatial characteristics of precipitation in Jiangxi Province and establish an ARIMA prediction model for Jiangxi Province,the monthly accumulated rainfall from 2020 to 2021 is predicted. According to the results of the degree of fit,it is concluded that the prediction accuracy of the model is high,indicating that the prediction results of the model can scientifically and effectively improve the capabilities of water resources management,planning and protection,and it also proves that the precipitation prediction model is reliable in actual use.

关 键 词：降水预测 时空分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]