基于海洋环境要素的动态航行风险评估  

Dynamic navigation risk assessment based on marine environmental elements

作　　者：杜沛 任利锋[2] 刘善伟[1] 曾喆[1] DU Pei;REN Lifeng;LIU Shanwei;ZENG Zhe(College of Oceanography and Space Informatics,China University of Petroleum (East China),Qingdao Shandong 266580,China;Marine Geophysical Prospecting Branch,BGP INC.,China National Petroleum Corporation,Tianjin 300457,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)海洋与空间信息学院,山东青岛266580 [2]中国石油集团东方地球物理勘探有限责任公司海洋物探分公司,天津300457

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2021年第2期171-176,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1405600)。

摘　　要：为得到精确动态航行评估结果,将多准则决策方法与GIS风险制图技术相结合,以5种海洋环境要素(风场、洋流、海浪、海温和海底地形)作为评估因子,通过数据时空插值法和层次分析法(AHP,Analytic Hierarchy Process)确定评估因子权重,提出权重优化算法改进权重值,进而得到最优动态航行风险评估结果。结果表明:动态航行风险评估结果能够直观展示海域航行风险空间分布和变化趋势,评估具有实时性和连续性,可以为海域恶劣海况提供足够预警能力。In order to obtain the better dynamic navigation assessment results,a combination way of multi-criteria decision-making method and GIS risk mapping technology was adopted,and five marine environmental elements(wind field,ocean currents,waves,sea temperature and seabed topography)were used as assessment factors.The weights of assessment factors were determined by using the data spatio-temporal interpolation method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method.A weight optimization algorithm was put forward to improve the weight value,and then the optimal dynamic navigation risk assessment results were obtained.The results showed that the dynamic navigation risk assessment results could visually display the spatial distribution and change trend of maritime navigation risk,and the assessment was real-time and continuous,which provides sufficient early warning capabilities for the bad sea conditions in the sea.

关 键 词：动态航行风险评估 AHP GIS快速制图 海洋环境要素 

分 类 号：X959[环境科学与工程—安全科学]