基于无味变换的边坡可靠性分析  

Slope reliability analysis based on unscented transformation

作　　者：向子林 许晓亮[2] 黄闻捷 陈将宏 XIANG Zilin;XU Xiaoliang;HUANG Wenjie;CHEN Jianghong(College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,P.R.China;Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Ministry of Education,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,P.R.China;College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [3]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《土木与环境工程学报（中英文）》2021年第2期76-83,共8页Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51809151)。

摘　　要：岩土工程不确定性问题是近年研究的热点之一,以边坡可靠性分析为出发点,通过介绍无味变换原理,给出基于无味变换的边坡可靠性分析方法及实施步骤,借助已有研究中的均质边坡和分层边坡算例,探讨了基于无味变换的边坡可靠性分析方法的合理性和适用性,结果表明:基于无味变换原理开展边坡可靠性分析可不依赖于变量的分布类型,应用方便且计算效率高;在分析可靠性较高的边坡时,由于失效概率量值较小,引起的相对误差较大,应谨慎选择,但对于工程上更为关注的可靠性较低(较高失效概率,P f>7%)的边坡,与蒙特卡洛方法相比,基于无味变换方法的计算结果相对误差约在5%以内,且变量相关系数的变化引起的误差波动较小,适用性较好。The uncertainty problem of geotechnical engineering is one of the research hotspots in recent years.The slope reliability analysis is a foundation.According to the principle of unscented transformation,the analysis methods and implementation steps of slope reliability are given.Based on the existing examples of the homogeneous slope and the layered slope,the rationality and applicability of slope reliability analysis method based on unscented transformation are discussed.The results show that the reliability analysis of slope based on the unscented transformation does not depend on the distribution types of variables,and this method is convenient in application and efficient in calculation.When the slope with higher reliabilityis analyzed,a large relative error is caused because the value of failure probability is small.Therefore,the method should be chosen carefully.But for the slope with lower reliability(higher failure probability,P f>7%)is more concerned in the engineering,the method of slope reliability analysis has better applicability than the Monte Carlo method.Mean while,the relative error of this method is approximately within 5%and the error fluctuation caused by the change of variable correlation coefficient is small.

关 键 词：边坡 可靠性分析 无味变换 抗剪强度参数 相关性 失效概率 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]