公路诱增交通量预测方法综述  

Summary of Forecasting Methods of Highway Induced Traffic Volume

作　　者：葛德书 GE De-shu

机构地区：[1]辽宁省公路勘测设计公司,辽宁沈阳110006

出　　处：《内蒙古公路与运输》2021年第1期56-58,61,共4页Highways & Transportation in Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：诱增交通量预测是公路建设项目在工程可行性研究阶段的重要环节,其预测结果对公路建设项目技术标准具有显著影响。文章通过对国内外研究现状的总结,在分析诱增交通量产生机理基础上,详细介绍了重力模型法、生长曲线法、弹性系数法和MD模型法等诱增交通量预测方法,研究可为工程实际提供理论依据,增加预测结果的精确性。Induced traffic volume prediction is an important link in the feasibility study of highway construction projects.The prediction results have a significant impact on the technical standards of highway construction projects.This paper summarizes the research status at home and abroad and introduces the gravity model,growth curve method,elastic coefficient method,and the MD model in detail based on analyzing the mechanism of induced traffic volume.It can provide a theoretical basis for engineering practice and increase the accuracy of prediction results.

关 键 词：诱增交通量 重力模型法 生长曲线法 弹性系数法 MD模型法 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]