特朗普政府对朝政策调整动因探析  

An Analysis of the Motivations for Trump Administration's Policy Adjustment to DPRK

作　　者：杨鲁慧[1,2,3,4] 李丹岑 Yang Luhui;Li Dancen(Contemporary Socialism of Shandong University;Asia-Pacific Institute of Shandong University;Chinese Association of Asia-Pacific Studies;Northeast Asia Research Association of Chinese Association of Asia-Pacific Studies;China Foreign Affairs University)

机构地区：[1]山东大学当代社会主义研究所 [2]山东大学亚太研究所 [3]中国亚太学会 [4]中国亚太学会东北亚研究会 [5]外交学院

出　　处：《当代韩国》2020年第3期14-25,共12页Contemporary Korea

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究专项任务项目“新时代中国周边外交与命运共同体建设研究”(项目编号:18JF104);教育部重点研究基地山东大学当代社会主义研究所自立课题“新时代中国特色社会主义的周边与国际环境研究”(课题编号:ICSZLKT2019003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：特朗普执政以来美国对朝政策发生了重大转变,从以往历届政府主要实施以威慑为主的极限施压政策,转变为以对话为主的接触与极限施压并重的政策。本文根据新古典现实主义理论的外交政策变化输入—干预—输出的理论逻辑,以体系、认知和决策三个变量因素作为切入点,对特朗普政府的对朝政策调整的动因进行了分析。从体系层面看,政治格局转变带来的机遇为特朗普政府政策调整提供了外部环境;从认知干预层面看,决策者认知的变化是特朗普政府对朝政策调整的内在动力;从决策干预的视角看,美国立法机构的监督和促进作用,立法机构推动美对朝政策向外交谈判方向推进。美国对外政策的调整是一个复杂过程,特朗普政府对朝政策调整的成因主要是国际环境、决策者认知、集团干预决策。Since Trump took office,the US policy toward the DPRK has undergone major changes,from a policy of extreme pressure to a policy of contact and extreme pressure.The focus of policy has changed from deterrence to dialogue.Based on the theoretical logic of input-intervention-output of neoclassical realism,this article analyzes and demonstrates the motivation of Trump's policy adjustment to the DPRK from the three variables of system,cognition and decision-making.From the perspective of the system level,the opportunities brought about by the changes in the political pattern provide an external environment for the Trump government's policy adjustment.At the level of cognitive intervention,the change in decision makers'cognition is the internal driving force for Trump's policy adjustment to the DPRK.From the perspective of policy intervention,the US Congress urges the government to adjust the DPRK policy toward dialogue.It can be concluded that the adjustment of US foreign policy is a complex process.The causes of the Trump administration's policy adjustment to DPRK are mainly the result of the comprehensive effect of the international environment,the cognition of policymakers,and the intervention of the group in decision-making.

关 键 词：美国对朝政策 美朝关系 外交决策 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]