2020年南宁市流行性腮腺炎ARIMA模型预测研究  

Application of ARIMA model to predicting the incidence rate of mumps in Nanning City,2020

作　　者：唐金芳[1] 王佑新 农初师[1] 甘文烨[1] 曾小云 TANG Jin-fang;WANG You-xin;NONG Chu-shi;GAN Wen-ye;ZENG Xiao-yun(Nanning Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning,Guangxi 530028,China;Graduate School of Guangxi Medical University,Nanningi Guangxi 530021,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁市疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁530028 [2]广西医科大学研究生学院,广西南宁530021

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2021年第3期313-316,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广西壮族自治区卫生健康委员会科研课题(课题编号:Z20201482)。

摘　　要：目的建立自回归移动平均模型(auto-regressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)预测南宁市流行性腮腺炎的发病率,为防控流行性腮腺炎提供理论依据。方法采用SPSS 23.0软件,使用南宁市2013年1月—2019年6月流行性腮腺炎月发病率建立ARIMA模型,运用2019年7—12月的实际值与预测值进行评估,并预测2020年1—6月的发病率。结果拟合的ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型最佳,MAE=0.695,RMSE=1.230,MAPE=23.487,经检验残差序列为白噪声,拟合模型对短期有良好的预测效果。2020年1—6月的预测月发病率分别为9.88/10万、7.62/10万、8.32/10万、9.40/10万、11.91/10万、11.67/10万。结论ARIMA模型可用于南宁市流行性腮腺炎发病趋势的短期预测,适宜推广使用。Objective To establish an auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)for predicting the incidence rate of mumps in Nanning City,and to provide a theoretical basis for mumps prevention and control.Methods SPSS 23.0 software was used to establish the ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence rates of mumps in Nanning City from January 2013 to June 2019.The actual and predicted values from July to December in 2019 were applied to assessing the model,and the incidence rates of mumps from January to June in 2020 were predicted.Results The fitted ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the best,with mean absolute error being 0.695,root mean squared error being 1.230,and mean absolute percentage error being 23.487.The residual sequence was classified as white noise,and the fitted model had good short-term prediction effect.The predicted monthly incidence rates of mumps from January to June in 2020 were 9.88/100,000,7.62/100,000,8.32/100,000,9.40/100,000,11.91/100,000 and 11.67/100,000,respectively.Conclusions The ARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction of epidemic trend of mumps in Nanning City,and it is suitable for popularization and application.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学]