门诊在线预约挂号系统用户爽约行为影响因素研究  

Research on Factors of Missed Online Appointment for Out-patient Based on the Association Rules Algorithm

作　　者：苏玮[1] 祝翠玲 张新[1] 徐峰[1] SU Wei;ZHU Cuiling;ZHANG Xin;XU Feng(School of Management Science and Technology,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,济南250014

出　　处：《信息系统学报》2020年第2期40-52,共13页China Journal of Information Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BGL263):互联网大数据情境下的品牌网络舆情与在线服务补救交互作用机理研究。

摘　　要：医院门诊预约挂号中的爽约现象造成了医疗资源的极大浪费,增加了医院管理的复杂性。研究用户的爽约影响因素,以优化预约模式,减少爽约的发生是目前医院管理中亟待解决的问题。基于大中型医院已广泛采用在线预约挂号,选取山东省一家三级甲等综合医院门诊在线预约挂号数据,运用关联规则发现中的Apriori算法分析患者爽约与各因素之间的关联关系并进行实证分析。结果发现:①历史爽约次数对爽约有显著正向影响;②预约时间与就诊时间间隔大于一定数值后能有效降低爽约风险;③随着就诊患者年龄的增加,爽约风险降低;④当挂号费高于一定金额后可有效降低爽约风险。本文研究为降低医院在线门诊挂号爽约率提供了有效支撑。Missed appointments in outpatient registration reservation has caused great waste of medical resources and increased the complexity of hospital management.To find the key factors of the missed appointments,optimize the mode of appointment and reduce the missed appointments is the urgent problem to be solved in hospital management.Based on the data of on-line appointment of a third-class hospital in Shandong Province,the Apriori algorithm in association rule discovery was used to analyze association between missed appointment and different factors and to find the key factor.The result illustrates that the previous records of missed appointments has a positive relationship with missed appointments,the interval time between the appointments and visiting time beyond a certain threshold can reduce the risk of missed appointments.The result also shows the risk can decrease with the increases of age and the registration fee beyond a certain threshold.The study provides an effective support for reducing missed appoints in on-line outpatient registration.

关 键 词：在线预约挂号 爽约 影响因素 关联规则 

分 类 号：C931.6[经济管理—管理学]