中国1991—2018年经济发展和婴儿死亡率变化动态响应分析  

Dynamic response analysis of economic development and infant mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2018

作　　者：樊俏荣 周鹏飞[1] 童思[1] 张妍[1] 王燕[1] 黄娟[1] 黄楠 李晨露 杨小龙 刘建正 FAN Qiao-rong;ZHOU Peng-fen;TONG Si;ZHANG Yan;WANG Yan;HUANG Juan;HUANG Nan;LI Chen-lu;YANG Xiao-long;LIU Jian-zheng(Baoji Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Baoji 721000,China;The First Affiliated Hospital of PLA Air Force Mili-tary Medical University,Xi’an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡市妇幼保健院,宝鸡721000 [2]中国人民解放军空军军医大学第一附属医院,西安710000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2021年第2期198-203,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

摘　　要：目的探讨我国经济发展与婴儿死亡率之间的相互影响关系,预测我国婴儿死亡率的变化趋势。方法依据我国1991―2018年国民生产总值(gross domestic product, GDP)、卫生总费用(total expenditure on health, TEH)和婴儿死亡率(infant mortality rate, IMR)数据,构建向量自回归(vector autoregression, VAR)模型,并以此预测我国2030年婴儿死亡率水平。结果 VAR(4)模型R^(2)=0.86, AIC=-20.37, SBC=-18.44;GDP是IMR降低和TEH增长的格兰杰原因(χ^(2)=20.97,P<0.001),IMR和GDP是TEH增长的格兰杰原因(χ^(2)=18.07,P<0.001);GDP、TEH的新息冲击对婴儿健康水平产生正向中长期响应,12期时对IMR变化的贡献度分别是11.04%和69.49%。GDP受IMR和TEH新息冲击产生正向响应。预测至2030年时我国的IMR为2.13‰(95%CI:0.93‰~4.90‰)。结论经济发展和卫生投入的增加使我国婴儿死亡率有效下降,而相应地,婴儿死亡率下降和卫生投入的增加也促进了我国经济发展。Objective To explore the interactional relationship between economic development and infant mortality in China, and to predict the changing trend of infant mortality in China. Methods Based on gross domestic product(GDP), total expenditure on health(TEH) and infant mortality rate(IMR) data of China from 1991 to 2018, a vector autoregressive model was constructed to predict the infant mortality level of China in 2030. Results The results of VAR(4) model showed that R^(2)=0.86, AIC=-20.37 and SBC=-18.44. The Granger cause of IMR decrease and TEH increase was GDP(χ^(2)=20.97, P<0.001). The Granger causes of TEH increase were IMR and GDP(χ^(2)=18.07, P<0.001). The impact of innovations in GDP and TEH had a positive medium-to-long-term response to infant health, and the contribution to IMR changes at 12 periods were 11.04% and 69.49 %, respectively. GDP was positively affected by the impact of IMR and TEH innovation. It was expected that IMR of China would drop to 2.13 ‰(95% CI: 0.93 ‰-4.90‰) by 2030. Conclusions The increase of economic development and health investment has effectively reduced infant mortality in China. accordingly, the decline in infant mortality and increase in health investment have also promoted the economic development of China.

关 键 词：婴儿死亡率 国内生产总值 卫生总费用 向量自回归 动态响应 

分 类 号：R174[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]