流域突发水污染最优应急处理技术决策模型研究  

Decision-making method of optimal emergency treatment technology for basin sudden water pollution accidents

作　　者：杜倩颖 刘颖 罗玉兰 王沛禹 付雨洁 DU Qianying;LIU Ying;LUO Yulan;WANG Peiyu;FU Yujie(Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学地球科学与环境工程学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《人民长江》2021年第2期30-36,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779211,51209178);四川省科技计划项目(2019YJ0233)。

摘　　要：流域突发水污染后,决策者需迅速根据事故发生后相关信息筛选出快速、有效的应急处理技术。为了解决某些流域突发水污染事故案例库不完备,无法用案例匹配法筛选出最佳应急处理技术的问题,研究提出了流域突发水污染应急处理技术识别指标证据间距离函数,运用D-S证据理论合成规则,可有效解决各专家意见之间的冲突性,由此确立了应急处理技术的识别指标关系,从而形成了应急处理技术的决策方法。最后以广东北江镉污染事故和云南富宁县粗酚罐车泄露事故为案例,成功识别出事故的最优应急处理技术。结果表明:该应急处理技术决策方法具有科学性与可行性,可提高流域突发水污染应急决策的效率,可为流域突发污染事故应急处理技术筛选提供决策支持。As a sudden pollution accident occurs in a river basin,decision makers need to quickly select the optimal emergency treatment technology according to the actual accident characteristics.In order to solve the problem that the optimal emergency treatment technology can not be selected by the Case-Based Reasoning method due to the insufficient case base of sudden water pollution accidents,so a distance function of the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory between the identification indexes of the emergency treatment technology for sudden water pollution accidents was proposed.The Dempster–Shafer evidence theory can effectively resolve the conflict between the expert opinions,thus the identification indices relationship of the emergency treatment technology is determined.Finally,taking the cadmium pollution incidents in Beijiang,Guangdong Province and the leakage accident of crude phenol tanker in Funing County,Yunnan Province as examples,the optimal emergency treatment technology for the accident was identified successfully.The results showed that the decision-making method of emergency treatment technology was scientific and feasible,which could improve the efficiency of emergency decision-making for sudden pollution accidents in river basins,and provided decision support for the selection of emergency treatment technology.

关 键 词：流域水污染 应急处理技术 D-S证据理论 决策方法 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]