空间流行病学模型在鼠疫防控预警中的应用综述  

A Review of the Application of Space Epidemiological Model in Plague Prevention and Control Early Warning

作　　者：陈璐 朱大明[1] CHEN Lu;ZHU Da-ming(Faculty of Land Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《软件导刊》2021年第3期189-194,共6页Software Guide

摘　　要：鼠疫作为一种烈性传染病,病死率最高可达100%。鼠疫的存在与传播流行具有时空属性,因此利用空间流行病研究方法对鼠疫历史监测数据和多源环境遥感数据进行分析,能有效解决时空变量存在的时空交互性和相关性等问题,准确地实现鼠疫流行风险的防控预警。从鼠疫流行和防控、空间流行病学、空间流行学方法及其在鼠疫方面的应用3方面进行综合概述与比较分析,总结得出:将分层贝叶斯时空模型、传染病动力学模型和时空聚集性分析等方法应用于鼠疫流行环境因子探索是空间流行病学在未来鼠疫疫情预测领域的重要研究方向;结合时空统计学方法,对选取的鼠疫环境风险因素进行疫情流行与传播时空建模,旨在探索鼠疫的时空传播规律和发病机理,对未来的鼠疫疫情防控与决策具有重要意义。As a severe infectious disease,the plague has a fatality rate of up to 100%.The existence and spread of the plague have spa⁃tio-temporal attributes.Therefore,the use of spatial epidemiological research methods to analyze the historical monitoring data of the plague can effectively solve the spatiotemporal interaction and correlation of the spatiotemporal data and achieve accurate plague pre⁃vention and control early warning.This article combines GIS technology to conduct a comprehensive overview and comparative analysis from the three aspects of plague epidemic and control,spatial epidemiology,spatial epidemiology and its application in plague,and summarizes the application of hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model,infectious disease dynamic model and spatio-temporal ag⁃gregation analysis in the exploration of environmental factors of plague is the research direction of plague prediction and early warning in the future;combine spatio-temporal statistical methods and spatial epidemiological methods to study the environmental risk factors of plague,establishing spatio-temporal spread and analysis models,explore the time and space transmission law and pathogenesis of the plague,which is of great significance to the prevention and control of the plague and decision-making in the natural foci of plague.

关 键 词：鼠疫防控 疫情预测 空间流行病学 传播模型 时空分析 

分 类 号：TP319[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]