水文变异条件下潦河生态流量计算研究  

Calculation of Ecological Flow in Liaohe River under Hydrological Alteration Conditions

作　　者：王强[1,2] 夏瑞[1] 邹磊[3] 陈焰 张远 刘成建[1,4] 陈明昊 WANG Qiang;XIA Rui;ZOU Lei;CHEN Yan;ZHANG Yuan;LIU Chengjian;CHEN Minghao(Laboratory of Aquatic Ecological Conservation and Restoration,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;State Key Lab of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi′an 710127,China;The Three Gorges Institute of Ecological Environment,Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chongqing 400714,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院水生态保护修复研究室,北京100012 [2]武汉大学,水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [4]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127 [5]中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院三峡生态环境研究所,重庆400714

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2021年第3期607-617,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2019YFC0408900);长江生态环境保护修复联合研究(一期)(No.2019-LHYJ-01-0103);中央公益科研院所基本科研业务专项(No.2019YSKY-026)。

摘　　要：气候变化和高强度人类活动改变了流域的自然水文循环过程,导致水文序列出现变异,严重影响了流域水文生态系统的稳定性.目前,基于水文变异条件下的河道内生态流量计算已成为当前变化环境下生态水文学研究的热点问题之一.以江西鄱阳湖西北部的潦河为例,采用水文时间序列变异检验方法分析径流变异性及成因,应用水文模型对水文变异后的径流进行还原,以Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)、Anderson Darling(A-D)和概率点据相关系数(PPCC)3种检验法确定月径流的最优概率分布函数,进而提出水文变异条件下最适宜的潦河生态流量计算方法.结果表明:①潦河万家埠站径流在1972年发生水文变异,突变点后流域年径流增加了12%,降水量的增加和蒸发量的减少是其主要驱动要素.②采用分布式时变增益模型(DTVGM)对径流进行还原,率定期和验证期的相关系数和Nash-Sutchliffe效率系数均大于0.78,径流模拟值和实测值拟合程度较高,表明基于DTVGM进行径流还原是可行的.③基于还原后的径流,对5种概率分布函数进行拟合优度综合检验,确定逐月最优分布函数,并估算月河道生态流量.与Tennant法、最枯月平均流量法、7Q10法等方法比较,基于最优分布函数的生态流量结果更具确定性与合理性.在气候变化和人类活动引起径流变异的背景下,考虑水文变异的河道内生态需水计算方法能够更科学地体现水文变异对生态需水过程的影响,研究结果可为潦河流域水生态保护和水资源管理提供数据支撑,也可为变化环境下水资源规划和配置提供科学依据.Climate change and high-intensity human activities have altered the natural hydrological cycle of the basin,resulting in alteration in the hydrological sequence and severe impacts on the eco-hydrological system of the basin.The calculation of the ecological instream flow based on hydrological alteration conditions has become one of the hot topics in eco-hydrological research in the changing environment.The Liaohe River at the northwest of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province was taken as an example in this study.Based on the current situation of hydrological alterations in the changing environment,a variety of hydrological time series mutation test methods were used to detect the change-points,and the potential causes of hydrological alterations in the Liaohe River were also discussed.Then,runoff restoration was carried out by using hydrological models.On the basis of restored runoff,three kinds of goodness-of-fit methods,including Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S),Anderson Darling(A-D)and probability plot correlation coefficient(PPCC)methods,were used to determine the optimal probability distribution function of monthly runoff,which was used to calculate ecological instream flow under the hydrological alteration conditions.The results show that:(1)The hydrological alteration of the Wanjiabu Station in the Liaohe River occurred in 1972,and the annual runoff in the basin increased by 12%after the change-point.The increase in precipitation and the decrease in evapotranspiration were the main driving factors of the hydrological alteration.(2)The runoff was restored through the Distributed Time-Variation Gain Model(DTVGM).The simulated runoff values had a high fitting degree of fit with the measured values during the calibration and validation periods,and the correlation coefficient(r)and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)were larger than 0.78 during both periods,which indicates that runoff reduction based on DTVGM is feasible.(3)After the runoff restoration,the three goodness-of-fit methods were used to select the optimal distribution

关 键 词：水文变异 径流还原 生态流量 分布式时变增益模型(DTVGM) 潦河流域 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]