中国对外贸易存在J曲线效应吗?——基于NARDL模型分析  

Is there the J-curve Effects in China?——Analysis based on NARDL Model

作　　者：杜萌 李冰 DU Meng;LI Bing(College of Economics and Management,Dalian University,Dalian 116622,China;School of Land Science and Technology,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]大连大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116622 [2]中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京100083

出　　处：《大连大学学报》2020年第6期36-47,共12页Journal of Dalian University

基　　金：辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题“宏观经济下行背景下辽宁省上市公司金融风险多维度形成机制及防控措施研究”(2019lslktqn-015)。

摘　　要：本文通过构建NARDL模型,对人民币汇率如何影响我国进出口贸易进行了实证分析,研究结果显示:从长期来看,人民币汇率与中美、中欧和中日贸易之间存在着非对称效应,而在短期,人民币汇率变动仅与中欧贸易存在着非对称效应,而中美和中日无此现象,总体来看,人民币汇率与中国对外贸易之间没有存在显著的J曲线效应。分时间段来看,人民币对贸易的非线性主要表现在2005年8月到2014年7月这一时期,且人民币汇率与中美贸易之间存在着反J曲线效应,而对欧元区和日本则无此效应。In this paper,the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China’s import and export trade were analyzed by NARDL model.The results showed that:in the long run,there is an asymmetric effect between the RMB exchange rate as well as Sino-US,Sino-European,and Sino-Japanese trade.In the short term,changes in the RMB exchange rate only have an asymmetric influence on Sino-European trade,but there is no such phenomenon reflected from Sino-US and Sino-Japanese trade.In general,there is no significant J curve effect produced between RMB exchange rate and China’s foreign trade.In terms of time periods,the non-linearity of RMB to trade was mainly manifested from August 2005 to July 2014 when there was an inverse J-curve effect between the RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade.However,there was no such effect in European and Japanese area.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 NARDL 进出口贸易 非线性 

分 类 号：F830.1[经济管理—金融学]