滚装客船载运电动汽车火灾风险模型及安全管理对策  

Fire Risk Model and Safety Management Countermeasures for Ro-Ro Passenger Ships Transporting Electric Vehicles

作　　者：吴兵[1,2] 唐宇恒 郝国柱 陈沛 黄明[1,2] 张英[5] WU Bing;TANG Yuheng;HAO Guozhu;CHEN Pei;HUANG Ming;ZHANG Ying(Intelligent Transportation System Research Center,WUT,Wuhan 430063,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [3]武汉理工大学能源与动力工程学院,湖北武汉430063 [4]山东海事局董家口海事局,山东青岛266002 [5]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2021年第1期27-31,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(51809206);国家自然科学基金国际合作重点项目(51920105014);武汉理工大学自主创新研究基金项目(2019-ND-B1-07).

摘　　要：针对滚装客船载运电动汽车的充电安全性、火灾蔓延性和应急有效性等方面的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的电动汽车火灾风险定量模型。首先,收集事故案例数据,确定风险因素。其次,利用EM算法获取贝叶斯网络的条件概率表,建立电动汽车火灾风险贝叶斯网络模型。再次,对电动汽车火灾失效情景进行分析,结果表明充电状态下爆炸概率为停车状态下爆炸概率的2.4倍,且当温度升高时爆炸概率明显上升。最后,在总结电动汽车火灾风险规律的基础上,结合滚装客船自身的特点,提出了滚装客船载运电动汽车的安全管理对策。In order to consider the aspects of electric vehicle(EV)charging safety,fire spread and emergency response effectiveness when transporting EVs using a ro-ro passenger ship,this paper proposes a Bayesian network based fire risk model for EV.Firstly,cases of electric vehicle accidents in recent years were collected and the influencing factors are identified.Secondly,EM algorithm is used to obtain the conditional probability tables,the Bayesian network model of electric vehicle fire risk is established.Afterwards,scenario analysis of electric vehicle fire failure is carried out.The results show that the explosion probability in the charging state is 2.4 times that in the parking state,and the explosion probability increases significantly when the temperature rises.Finally,countermeasures for safety management of the ro-ro passenger ships transporting EVs are proposed with a comprehensive consideration of distinguishing characteristics of ro-ro passenger ships and fire accident features of EVs.

关 键 词：火灾风险 贝叶斯网络 电动汽车 滚装客船 安全管理 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]