农村老年人社区养老满意度及影响因素研究——基于多分类因变量Logistic模型的实证分析  

Research on Satisfaction and Influencing Factors of Rural Elderly in Community Support:An Empirical Analysis Based on Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

作　　者：纪江明 张乐天[2] Ji Jiangmin;Zhang Letian(Huzhou Normal University,Huzhou 313000;School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University 200433)

机构地区：[1]湖州师范学院经济管理学院,湖州313000 [2]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2021年第4期68-80,157,158,共15页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“大数据背景下社区医养结合养老模式创新研究(NO.16BRK012)”;湖州师范学院人文社科预研究项目(201805)。

摘　　要：当前农村老年人的养老状况已成为突出的社会与民生问题,本文围绕这一问题开展调查研究。首先,本文追溯了国内外农村老年人养老满意度的理论渊源与演化逻辑,并根据质量不一致模型、顾客容忍区理论构建了农村老年人社区养老满意度的理论分析框架。其次,根据理论分析框架,构建农村老年人社区养老满意度评价指标体系,包括4个一级指标、20个二级指标,结合本项目组在杭嘉湖地区三个县(区)1768个样本的问卷调查数据,运用熵权法计算各二级指标的权重系数,以及各一级指标的满意度指数。再次,设置因变量、自变量,运用多层次向后排除法,选择一些双向交互项、三向交互项,构建多分类因变量Logistic回归模型,分析受访农村老年人个人和家庭变量对养老满意度的影响机制、效用和程度。最后,根据理论基础和实证分析结果,得出研究结论和政策启示。At present,the community support of the rural elderly has become a prominent social and livelihood issue.This paper focuses on this issue to carry out investigation and research.Firstly,this paper traces back to theoretical origin and evolution logic of community support satisfaction of rural elderly at home and abroad,and constructs a theoretical analysis framework of community support satisfaction of the rural elderly based on Quality-Disconfirmation Model and Customer Tolerance Area Theory.Secondly,according to the theoretical analysis framework,the evaluation index system of rural elderly community pension satisfaction is constructed,including 4 first level indicators and 20 second level indicators.Based on the data of 1768 samples from three counties(districts)in HangJiaHu area,the weight coefficient of every secondary index and the satisfaction index of every primary index are calculated by entropy weight method.Thirdly,by setting dependent variables and independent variables,and selecting some two-way and three-way interactive variables by using hierarchical backward elimination strategy,this paper constructs the multivariate logistic regression model to analyze the influence mechanism,effectiveness and degree of individual and family variables on community support satisfaction of rural elderly.Finally,according to theoretical basis and empirical analysis results,the conclusion and policy implications are drawn.

关 键 词：农村老年人 社区养老满意度 影响因素 政策启示 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]