基于城镇职工基本养老保险基金支出及其影响因素的时空差异性分析——基于GTWR模型以及面板分位数回归模型  

Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Differences of the Expenditure of Basic Pension Fund for Urban Workers——Based on GTWR Model and Panel Quantile Regression Model

作　　者：刘娱 田茂再[1,2] LIU Yu;TIAN Mao-zai(School of Statistics and Information,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang,China;Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第1期22-28,共7页Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11861042);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目;中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)(18XNL012);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(XJUFE2020K006).

摘　　要：在新冠疫情背景下,为保障中老年群体的身体健康,本文将关注点放在城镇基本养老保险基金支出上.首先对基本养老金支出进行时空差异性分析.随后利用GTWR模型以及面板分位数回归模型分析高等教育毕业生数、离退休率、居民可支配收入三个影响因子对基本养老金支出的影响机制.最后根据城镇基本养老保险基金支出在我国各省域的分布特点以及影响因素的基础上提出结论与对策,以确保基本养老金的可持续性和公平性,保障离退休人员拥有全面养老保障以及舒适的生活环境.In the context of COVID-19,in order to ensure the health of middle-aged and elderly people,this paper focuses on the expenditure of urban basic pension fund.First of all,the basic pension expenditure spatiotemporal difference analysis.Then,the GTWR model and panel quantile regression model were used to analyze the impact mechanism of the number of higher education graduates,retirement rate and residents’disposable income on the basic pension expenditure.Finally,conclusions and countermeasures are put forward,based on the distribution characteristics and influencing factors of urban basic pension fund expenditure in various provinces in China,the aim at ensure the sustainability and fairness of basic pension and guarantee the retirees to have a comprehensive pension security and a comfortable living environment.

关 键 词：基本养老保险支出 GTWR模型 面板分位数回归 时空差异分析 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]