树轮记录的1808年以来神农架地区平均气温的变化  

VARIABILITY OF MEAN TEMPERATURE SINCE 1808 A.D.IN SHENNONGJIA MOUNTAIN AREA INFERRED FROM TREE RING

作　　者：郑泽煜 靳立亚[1,2] 李金建 陈婕 张肖剑[3] 王振乾 ZHENG Zeyu;JIN Liya;LI Jinjian;CHEN Jie;ZHANG Xiaojian;WANG Zhenqian(Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental System,Ministry of Education,College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,Sichuan;School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [3]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2021年第2期334-345,共12页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项项目“中国南北过渡带综合科学考察”(批准号:2017FY100903)资助。

摘　　要：利用采自神农架林区的巴山冷杉树轮样本建立了树轮宽度标准年表(STD),年表的可靠时段是1808年至2017年(SSS>0.85)。与气候要素进行相关分析发现,树轮年表与多个月份的平均气温相关显著,其中与前一年9月至当年5月(P9C5)平均气温的相关性最高,达到0.56(p<0.01)。在此基础上,利用STD年表重建了神农架地区过去210年以来P9C5平均气温的变化。重建结果显示,在过去210年间,该地区先后经历了4个偏暖阶段和4个偏冷阶段。空间相关分析结果表明重建序列在1959~2017年间具有较好的时空代表性。此外,该重建结果与邻近地区其他基于树轮资料重建的温度序列有较好的对应关系,进一步验证了该重建序列的可靠性。多窗谱分析结果显示该地区气温变化包含2~8 a周期、准11 a周期、准17 a周期、准27 a周期和准84 a周期。重建序列与海表温度(SST)的空间相关分析结果进一步表明,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)是可能的周期驱动因子。In this study,A standard chronology(STD)of Abies fargesii was developed using tree rings in Shennongjia Mountain area(31°15’~31°75’N,109°56’~110°58’E).Its reliable period is from 1808 A.D.to 2017 A.D.(subsample signal strength>0.85).To detect critical climatic factor for the tree growth in this region,we analysed the correlation between the STD and different climatic factors and found that correlation coefficients between STD chronology and monthly mean temperature were significant in many months,with the highest correlation(r=0.56)from previous autumn to current spring(P9 C5).Based on these analyses,we reconstructed the P9 C5 temperature variation in this region using a linear regression model.Further,to determine whether the STD-based reconstruction shows spatial-temporal representativeness over the large Eastern China region,spatial correlation analyses were performed.The results of the spatial analysis revealed that our reconstruction is representative of large-scale P9 C5 temperature variation.Additionally,the reconstruction showed 4 warm periods and 4 cool periods over the past 210 years.It also showed that the temperature variation in the study area is corresponding to other nearby sites;these findings demonstrate the reliability of our reconstruction back in time.Additionally,Multi-taper analysis showed that significant spectral peaks were identified at 2~8 a,quasi-11 a,quasi-17 a,quasi-27 a and quansi-84 a,which indicate the possible links between El Ni1 o-Southern Oscillations(ENSO),solar activity,Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and regional temperature change.This hypothesis was further confirmed via the spatial correlation patterns of reconstructed series with Sea surface temperature(SST).

关 键 词：树木年轮 神农架 气温重建 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P534.63