考虑多种诱导信息下公众满意度的舆情危机响应决策方法  

Decision-making Method in Response to Public Opinion Crisis Considering the Satisfaction of the Public under Multiple Inducing Information

作　　者：王治莹[1] 李勇建 刘小弟 WANG Zhi-ying;LI Yong-jian;LIU Xiao-di(School of Management Science&Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan 243032,China;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Mathematics&Physics,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [3]安徽工业大学数理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2021年第1期207-216,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72074002,71704001,71725004,71603109);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(1808085QG224);南开大学亚洲研究中心资助项目。

摘　　要：针对当前研究较少考虑到多种诱导信息情境下舆情危机响应决策问题的现状,首先在介绍研究理论和方法的基础上,对该决策问题进行了描述;然后,通过分析诱导信息的属性结构及其量化方式,运用前景理论从属性层面,提出了舆情危机特定情景和响应方案下公众对多种诱导信息发展态势满意度的计算方法;进一步地,考虑到方案对危机情景演变的影响,运用累积前景理论从公众满意度干预视角,提出了方案筛选的风险决策方法。最后,以一类重大传染病疫情场景中舆情危机响应决策问题为例,介绍该方法的潜在应用和说明其有效性。In recent years,multiple inducing information are often derived from frequent outbreaks of emergencies because of their suddenness,harmfulness and uncertainty,which usually arouse the panic of the public and dominant the formation and evolution of public opinion crisis(POC).However,the existing studies are less concerned with the decision-making problem of responding to POC under the situation of multiple inducing information.Therefore,this decision-making problem is first described on the basis of introducing basic theories and methods.Then,after analyzing the attribute structure of inducing information,a quantitative approach is developed at the attribute level based on prospect theory,to calculate the public satisfaction with development trend of multiple inducing information under the specific scenario and response plan of POC.Further,considering the impact of response plans on the evolution of scenarios of POC,a risk decision method is proposed based on cumulative prospect theory from the perspective of the intervention of the public satisfaction,to select optimal plan from alternatives.Finally,taking the decision-making problem of responding to POC in the situation of a major infectious disease epidemic as an example to illustrate the potential application and validity of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method could obtain optimal plan from alternatives on the basis of simultaneously considering the public satisfaction,behavioral characteristics of decision-makers and the effects of response plans on the evolution of scenarios of POC at the level of attributes of multiple inducing information.The studies could not only enrich the system of decision-making method for selecting optimal plan from alternatives in response to POC under the emergency management paradigm of"scenario-response",but also provide theoretical references for the prevention of potential secondary events derived from POC,such as material panic buying,unlawful assembly and group petitions.

关 键 词：舆情危机 诱导信息 满意度 风险决策 前景理论 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学] N949