过载及欠载情形下产业链网络风险级联失效的建模与仿真  

Modeling and Simulation of Industrial Chain Network Risk Cascading Failure under Over-load Status and Under-load Status

作　　者：张钦[1,2] 雷世豪 王海 ZHANG Qin;LEI Shi-hao;WANG Hai(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211116,China;Energy Soft Science Research Center,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.Nanjing 21116,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211116 [2]南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究中心,江苏南京211116

出　　处：《系统工程》2021年第2期50-60,共11页Systems Engineering

基　　金：自然科学基金面上项目(71774081);南京航空航天大学创新基地(实验室)开放基金资助项目(kfjj20190905);南京航空航天大学基本科研业务费(NK2020002)。

摘　　要：产业链网络内外存在各种风险,例如经营风险、自然风险、COVID-19等,一旦企业因风险失效会导致产业链的级联失效。因此,首先针对产业链特性,利用有向加权无标度网络算法生成产业链网络。考虑到企业针对风险有一定的冗余能力,而且存在应急恢复机制,基于负载容量模型,提出了一种考虑过载和欠载状态的产业链网络级联失效模型。模型考虑了企业的风险预警能力与管控能力,从初始负载、节点容量、节点过载/欠载、失效负载重分配、应急恢复机制五个方面进行刻画。通过对产业链网络进行数值仿真发现:风险预警投入与管控投入均存在一个有效区间,且产业链网络的稳定性受风险预警投入影响更显著。There are various risks inside and outside industrial chain networks(ICN),such as natural risks,operational risks,COVID-19,etc.,the risk diffusion of ICN is a cascading failure process.Therefore,according to the characteristics of the industrial chain,a directed weighted scale-free network algorithm is used to generate the ICN.Due to the risk in the industrial chain network will lead to the cascading failure process,by considering that the enterprise has a certain degree of redundancy against risks,and there is an emergency recovery mechanism,based on the load capacity model,a cascading failure model of the ICN considering over-load and under-load status is proposed.The model considers the enterprise’s risk early warning capabilities and control capabilities,and it is characterized from five aspects:initial load,node capacity,over-load/under-load status,failed load redistribution,and emergency recovery mechanism.Through the numerical simulation,it is found that there is an effective interval between the risk early warning investment and the control investment,and the stability of the industrial chain network is more significantly affected by the risk early warning investment.

关 键 词：产业链网络 过载状态 欠载状态 级联失效 负载容量模型 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] TP393[经济管理—国民经济]