GRAPES_Meso和ECMWF模式对郴州地区2019年汛期降水预报对比检验  

Precipitation Forecast Model Comparison between GRAPES_Meso and ECMWF in 2019 Flood Season of Chenzhou

作　　者：周宜卿 宋楠 陈伟 Zhou Yiqing;Song Nan;Chen Wei(Chenzhou Meteorological Bureau,Chenzhou 423000,China)

机构地区：[1]郴州市气象局,湖南郴州423000

出　　处：《湘南学院学报》2021年第2期29-34,共6页Journal of Xiangnan University

基　　金：湖南省气象局预报员专项项目(XQKJ19C002);湖南省气象局重点项目(XQKJ20A007)。

摘　　要：利用GRAPES_Meso和ECMWF模式降水量预报、实况降水量等资料,计算2019年汛期两种模式的晴雨预报准确率(PC)、风险评分(TS)、漏报率(PO)、空报率(FAR)、真实技巧评分(TSS)和预报偏差(BIAS)几个量,对模式降水量预报进行了统计检验.研究结果表明:对于郴州10个国家站,GRAPES_Meso整体优于ECMWF模式,两种模式对所有气象站降水均存在预报过度的现象,其中ECMWF模式更明显;ECMWF模式的漏报率低于GRAPES_Meso模式,但其空报率高于后者;两种模式都对资兴到永兴一带的预报效果最好,对西南部预报效果最差,ECMWF模式在桂东站表现较好,GRAPES_Meso模式则对汝城站预报效果更优;对暴雨及以上量级的降水预报效果ECMWF模式明显优于GRAPES_Meso模式,而对小雨量级来说,后者更佳;两种模式对9月的预报效果最差,4月和5月较好.Precipitation forecast in 2019 flood season from GRAPESMESO model and ECMWF model are verified and compared by using observation precipitation data in terms of PC(flood season weather corecast accuracy of model),TS(risk score),PO(non-response rate),FAR(empty rate),TSS(real skill score) and BIAS(several forecast accuracy).The results show that, in general, GRAPESMESO model is better than ECMWF model on precipitation forecasting in Chenzhou whole city or 10 national stations. Over prediction is the ubiquitous phenomenon in these two models, and ECMWF model is more obvious.The rate of missing report for forecasting of precipitation from ECMWF model is lower than GRAPESMESO model, but the rate of false-alarm of ECMWF model is higher.GRAPES Meso and ECMWF models show better prediction ability for Yongxing county and Zixing county, but exhibit a lower performance in the southwest part of Chenzhou than that in other parts.ECMWF model has better prediction ability to Guidong county, while GRAPES Meso model performs better in Ruchen county.GRAPES Meso model has a strong ability of light rain, but the heavy rainfall prediction ability is lower than ECMWF model.These two models show worst prediction ability in September, but they perform best in April an May.

关 键 词：GRAPES_Meso模式 ECMWF模式 郴州 汛期降水 降水检验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]