三种肺癌风险预测模型在肺结节患者中的验证性研究  

Validation of three lung cancer risk prediction models in patients with pulmonary nodules

作　　者：安杨[1] 李春笋[1] 赵微[1] AN Yang;LI Chunsun;ZHAO Wei(Department of Respiratory Diseases,the First Medical Center,Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing 100853,China)

机构地区：[1]解放军总医院第一医学中心呼吸科,北京100853

出　　处：《解放军医学院学报》2020年第12期1193-1196,1225,共5页Academic Journal of Chinese PLA Medical School

摘　　要：目的运用肺结节患者的临床和影像资料,验证3种肺癌风险预测模型的诊断价值。方法回顾分析2015年8月-2016年7月在我中心明确诊断的肺结节患者的临床和影像资料,用国内外认可的Mayo模型、VA模型和北大模型进行验证,比较3个肺癌风险预测模型的效能参数及ROC曲线。结果纳入研究的肺结节患者共407例,平均年龄(56.09±9.56)岁,男205例,女202例。其中良性结节84例(20.6%),恶性结节323例(79.4%)。北大模型的敏感度最高(78.6%),Mayo模型的特异性最高(76.2%);ROC曲线下面积,Mayo模型为0.608,VA模型为0.550,北大模型为0.615。结论对于肺结节患者,北大人民医院建立的肺癌风险预测模型的诊断价值较Mayo模型和VA模型更高。Objective To verify the diagnostic ability of three lung cancer risk prediction models by using clinical and imaging information of pulmonary nodules,and explore the clinical value of these prediction models.Methods Clinical and imaging data of patients with pulmonary nodules admitted in the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from August 2015 to July 2016 were retrospectively analyzed,and then they were verified by Mayo model,VA model and Peking University model,respectively.The sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the models were compared.Results A total of 407 patients with pulmonary nodules were included in the study,with average age of(56.09±9.56)years.There were 205 males and 202 females.Pathological results showed 84(20.6%)nodules were benign,and 323(79.4%)nodules were malignant.Among the three models,Peking University model achieved the highest sensitivity(78.6%),and Mayo model achieved the highest specificity(76.2%).The area under ROC curve of Mayo model,VA model and Peking University model was 0.608,0.550,and 0.615,respectively.Conclusion Lung cancer risk prediction model of Peking University People’s Hospital is superior to Mayo model and VA model in the diagnosis of lung cancer.

关 键 词：肺结节 肺癌 北大人民医院肺癌风险预测模型 Mayo模型 VA模型 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤] R730.44[医药卫生—临床医学]