基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析  

Coupling analysis of the risk factors for the maritime transportation safety based on the N-K model

作　　者：王焕新[1] 刘正江[1] WANG Huan-xin;LIU Zheng-jiang(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第1期56-61,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909022);辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2019-BS-024);大连海事大学重点科研培育项目(3132019347)。

摘　　要：为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。The paper intends to make a quantitative analysis of the relationship among the risk factors of maritime transportation safety. The aim of the above analysis is to identify the key influential factors of marine accidents or incidents so as to clarify and determine the coupling relations among the risk factors,including man,ship,environment and management,from the point of view of the single,double and multiple factors. However,there ought to be existing a significant link for analyzing the causative mechanism of maritime traffic accidents based on the analysis of the risk factors of maritime transportation safety. And,it is just on such a need that the paper intends to introduce the N-K model so as to build up the risk coupling measurement model of maritime transportation safety. The probability of different risk coupling and the risk information interaction values can then be calculated and worked out based on the 710 maritime accidents that have been published by China Maritime Safety Administration,the German Federal Bureau of the Maritime Casualty Investigation,the Marine Accident Investigation Branch of the United Kingdom and the National Transportation Safety Board of the USA. Though the coupling risk information interaction data calculated may differ among the accidents of these countries,some conclusions can still be reached through comparing the results.At least,first of all,it is clearly indicated that,the more the risk coupling factors are involved,the higher the coupling risk information interaction data may lead to higher probability of maritime accidents. And,secondly,the information interaction data of the coupling risk of man,ship and environment may serve as the greatest among the 3-factor coupling risks,which implies that the probability of maritime traffic accidents is the greatest when the factors of man,ship and environment are coupled.And,thirdly,the information interaction value of the coupling risk of man and ship is the greatest among the 2-factor coupling risks,which implies that the mar

关 键 词：安全工程 海上交通 风险因素 耦合 N-K模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]