1956-2017年东北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Change Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation in Northeast China from 1956 to 2017

作　　者：吴金华 盛芝露 杜加强[1] 张杨成思 张静 WU Jinhua;SHENG Zhilu;DU Jiaqiang;ZHANGYANG Chengsi;ZHANG Jing(Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;School of Life Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]兰州大学生命科学学院,兰州730030

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2021年第3期340-347,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0500401-5);国家自然科学基金(41001055)。

摘　　要：在气候变化背景下,探究东北地区近60年来气温和降水的时空变化特征。基于东北地区102个气象站点1956—2017年的气象观测资料,运用趋势分析法、突变检测法、Fisher最优分割及空间分析等方法对气温和降水的时空变化进行了探究。结果表明:(1)东北地区年均温呈现显著上升趋势,倾向率为0.327℃/10 a(p<0.001),1987年前后分别是气温相对较低和较高的两个时期;1956—2017年东北地区降水量波动性较大,平均倾向率为-3.634 mm/10 a(p>0.05),升降过程较不稳定。(2)气温在1987—1988年有一个增温的明显突变(p<0.05);气温的升高具有阶段性;降水量在1964年、1983年、1999年附近有显著突变(p<0.05);2010—2017年降水波动相对较大,旱涝灾害频发。(3)气温由南向北逐渐降低,区域整体普遍升温;相邻时段间增温较大的区域依次是呼伦贝尔高原、小兴安岭、大兴安岭和辽河平原,同时增温幅度有所减缓;降水量由东南向西北递减,除大兴安岭北部外的绝大多数区域的降水量呈下降趋势;降水量在时段间呈现周期波动过程,2010年后进入相对丰水期。Under the background of climate change, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Northeast China in recent 60 years were analyzed. Based on the observation data from 102 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1956 to 2017, the temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by methods of trend analysis, mutation detection, fisher optimal segmentation and spatial analysis. The results indicated that:(1) the annual average temperature presented significant increasing trend with a tendency rate of 0.327 °C/decade(p<0.001);before the year 1987, temperature was relatively low, and increased since then;precipitation fluctuated greatly from 1956 to 2017, the decreasing rate was-3.634 mm/decade(p>0.05);the fluctuating process of precipitation was unstable;(2) an abrupt change of temperature increasing was observed in 1987—1988(p<0.05);temperature increased in stages;abrupt changes of precipitation were observed around 1964, 1983 and 1999(p<0.05);the fluctuation of precipitation was relatively great in 2010—2017, during which droughts and floods occurred frequently;(3) temperature decreased from southern to the northern gradually;the study area warmed up generally;the areas where temperature increased greatly in adjacent periods were Hulunbuir Plateau, Xiao Hinggan Mountains, Da Hinggan Mountains and Liaohe Plain in turn, and the temperature increase had slowed down;precipitation decreased from southeastern to northwestern;precipitation fluctuated cyclically in adjacent periods, and had entered the stage of wet season since 2010.

关 键 词：东北地区 气温 降水 突变检测 最优分割法 时空变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]