1968—2018年湘北地区暴雨过程气候特征及变化趋势  

Climatic Characteristics and Variation Trend of Rainstorm in Northern Hunan from 1968 to 2018

作　　者：桑友伟[1,2] 孟蕾 周玉[1] SANG You-wei;MENG Lei;ZHOU Yu(China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Hunan Branch,Changsha 410125,China;Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Changsha 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院湖南分院,长沙410125 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,长沙410118

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第9期3487-3494,共8页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFB0501401);湖南省气象局重点课题(XQKJ18A004);湖南省气象局2019年短平快课题(XQKJ19B050)。

摘　　要：利用湘北地区18个气象观测站1968—2018年逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、保证率和重标极差(rescaled range, R/S)分析等方法,分析并预测该地区暴雨过程气候特征及变化趋势。结果表明:(1)80%保证率下,湘北地区4月14日之前出现首场暴雨过程,11月8日之前出现末场暴雨过程,末场暴雨比首场暴雨落区更加均匀,且近51年末场暴雨日期显著推后,湘北地区暴雨过程发生期显著延长;(2)湘北地区暴雨过程在各个月份都有出现的可能,其中6—7月为多发月份,但暴雨过程尤其是较强暴雨过程不仅容易出现在夏季,出现在11月的概率同样很高;(3)湘北地区暴雨过程的覆盖范围、综合强度显著增加,较强暴雨的过程次数、持续时间、综合强度显著增加,并且在7月向极端化方向发展最显著;(4)首场暴雨日期未来变化较小,而末场暴雨日期将继续推后,暴雨发生期将继续延长,未来湘北地区暴雨过程的发生次数和持续时间将会继续增加,较强暴雨过程次数、持续时间和综合强度将继续增加。Daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological observation stations in Northern Hunan from 1968 to 2018 were used to analyze and predict the evolution characteristics of rainstorm.Methods of linear trend method,Mann-Kendall test,guarantee rate and R/S analysis were used.The results show that the first rainstorm occurs before April 14th and the last one occurs before November 8th in Northern Hunan in 80%guarantee rate.More uniform falling area and more extreme area rainfall occur in the last rainstorm than the first one.In addition,the date of the last rainstorm is significantly delayed,and the duration of rainstorm in Northern Hunan is significantly prolonged in the last 51 years.The rainstorm in Northern Hunan may occur in every month,and frequently in June and July.The extreme rainstorm is more likely occurring in summer and in November.The coverage,comprehensive intensity of rainstorm,the occurrence frequency,duration,comprehensive intensity of heavier rainstorm increase significantly,and the rainstorm develops to the extreme in July.The date of first rainstorm will change little in the future,while there is continuing delay and prolongation of the period for last rainstorm and the duration separately.In the future,the frequency and duration of rainstorm in Northern Hunan will continue to increase,and the frequency,duration and comprehensive intensity of heavier rainstorm will also continue to increase.

关 键 词：湘北 暴雨 MANN-KENDALL 保证率 R/S分析 

分 类 号：P468.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]