基于ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测医保补偿住院费用  

Prediction of hospitalization expenses compensated by medical insurance based on ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model

作　　者：白开智 闫书铭 史文龙 宋瑞 胡雪琪 贺坤 时松和[1] 史芳[3] 李霞[3] 裴娅辛 符多多 BAI Kai-zhi;YAN Shu-ming;SHI Wen-long;SONG Rui;HU Xue-qi;HE Kun;SHI Song-he;SHI Fang;LI Xia;PEI Ya-xin;FU Duo-duo(School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Henan,Zhengzhou 450001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院,河南450001 [2]郑州大学护理与健康学院 [3]郑州大学第一附属医院医保办

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2021年第7期1230-1234,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划省部共建项目(SB201901028);河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(201503015)。

摘　　要：目的探讨ARIMA-GRNN组合模型在城乡居民基本医疗保险的医保补偿住院费用预测中的应用,比较它与ARIMA模型预测的效果。方法收集2016年1月至2020年12月河南某市城乡居民基本医疗保险的住院补偿费用,使用Matlab R2016a建立ARIMA-GRNN组合模型,使用R 4.0.3建立ARIMA模型,用2020年5月至12月的数据对两模型的预测效果做评价。结果 ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12模型相对最优,其拟合部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为3 998.4、10.9%、5 642.9,预测部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为6 521.9、16.5%、6 675.8。ARIMA-GRNN模型最优光滑因子为0.166,其拟合部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为4 044.5、11.1%、5 622.0,预测部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为5 831.8、14.8%、6 013.7。结论 ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测效果比单纯ARIMA模型好,可短期预测医保补偿住院费用。Objective To explore the predictive effect of ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model in the prediction of hospitalization expenses compensated by medical insurance of urban and rural residents and compare it with ARIMA model. Methods Based on the hospitalization expenses compensated by medical insurance of urban and rural residents in a city of Henan Province from January 2016 to December 2020, ARIMA model was established with R 4.0.3, ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was established with MATLAB R2016 a, and the prediction effect of the model was evaluated with the data from May to December 2020. Results The MAE, MAPE, and RMSE of the fitting part of the ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12 model were 3 998.4, 10.9%, and 5 642.9, respectively. The MAE, MAPE, and RMSE of the prediction part were 6 521.9, 16.5%, and 6 675.8. The optimal smoothing factor of the ARIMA-GRNN model was 0.166. The MAE, MAPE, and RMSE of the fitting part were 4 044.5, 11.1%, and 5 622.0, and the MAE, MAPE, and RMSE of the prediction part were 5 831.8, 14.8%, and 6 013.7. Conclusion The predictive effect of ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model is better than that of ARIMA model alone, so the hybrid model can be used for short-term prediction of hospitalization expenses compensated by medical insurance.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 预测 ARIMA-GRNN 城乡居民基本医疗保险 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]