自然利率、资本效率与利率锚选择  

Natural Interest Rate,Capital Efficiency and Interest Rate Anchor Selection

作　　者：刘少华[1] Liu Shaohua(YinchuanProvincial Sub-branch PBC,Yinchuan Ningxia 750001)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行银川中心支行,宁夏银川750001

出　　处：《西部金融》2021年第2期4-11,共8页West China Finance

摘　　要：货币政策转型和利率市场化背景下,测算自然利率具有重要政策意义。本文根据历史文献讨论了自然利率的定义及相关概念,通过L W方法对其进行测算,并估算资本边际效率和宏观资本回报率,通过实际利率与三者的比较讨论自然利率和资本效率的货币政策含义。得出如下结论:一是国际金融危机等外部冲击对自然利率具有较大影响;二是资本边际效率和宏观资本回报率对自然利率的长期趋势具有引导作用;三是近年来我国实际利率高于资本边际效率和宏观资本回报率。基于此,本文建议:一是适应资本效率下行趋势,适当放宽利率下限;二是在利率锚的选择中综合考虑自然利率和资本效率;三是优化投资结构,努力提高资本产出效率。Under the background of monetary policy transformation and interest rate marketization, the measurement of natural interest rate is becoming more and more significant. Based on the historical documents, this paper studies the definition and related concepts of natural interest rate, measures the natural interest rate, marginal efficiency of capital and rate of capital return through mathematical methods, and compares the relationship among them. The following conclusions are drawn: First, the international financial crisis and other external shocks have a greater impact on the natural interest rate of China;Second, the marginal efficiency of capital and the return on macro capital have a guiding effect on the long-term trend of natural interest rate. Third, in recent years, China’s real interest rate is higher than the marginal efficiency of capital and the return on macro capital, Based on this, this paper proposes:first, adapt to the downward trend of capital efficiency, Second, natural interest rate and capital efficiency should be considered comprehensively in the choice of interest rate anchor. Third, we will optimize the investment structure and strive to raise the efficiency of capital output.

关 键 词：自然利率 资本边际效率 资本回报率 实际利率 利率锚 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]