“十四五”全球供需视角下2019/20年榨季我国食糖消费形势分析与2020/21年榨季展望  

Analysis of Sugar Consumption in 2019/20 Crushing Season and Prospect of the 2020/21 Crushing Season from the Perspective of Global Supply and Demand during the 14^(th) Five-year Plan

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 王新超[1] 岳俊秀 LIU Xiao-xue;WANG Xin-chao;YUE Jun-xiu(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《甘蔗糖业》2021年第2期121-129,共9页Sugarcane and Canesugar

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项经费资助(CARS170601);北京哲学社会科学首都流通业研究基地(JD-ZD-2021-021)。

摘　　要：2019/20年榨季我国食糖期货、现货价格受全球疫情和供需基本面影响呈现不断走低态势,进口政策、糖浆进口和糖醇替代等不确定因素对产业影响加强,2019/20年榨季食糖消费量下降至1480万t的水平,呈现“甜度需求减少、工业消费下滑、市场不确定性增加”特点。本文结合宏观经济、食品工业发展、供需平衡等维度分析2019/20年榨季我国食糖消费形势,预计2020/21年榨季食糖消费回升至1530万t,总体呈现“甜度需求增加、工业消费增长、淀粉糖或收缩、糖醇增量稳定”特征。Affected by the global epidemic situation and the fundamentals of supply and demand,China's sugar futures and spot prices had been on a downward trend in the 2019/20 crusing season.Uncertainties such as import policy,syrup import and sugar alcohol substitution have a stronger impact on the industry.The sugar consumption decreased to 14.8 million tons in 2019/20 crusing season,showing the characteristics of“decreasing demand for sweetness,declining industrial consumption and increasing market uncertainty”.This paper analyzes the sugar consumption situation in China in the 2019/20 crusing season based on macro-economy,food industry development,supply and demand balance and other dimensions.It is estimated that the sugar consumption will rise to 15.3 million tons in the 2020/21 crusing season,which may show the overall characteristics of“increased demand for sweetness,increased industrial consumption,contraction of starch sugar and stable sugar alcohol increment”.

关 键 词：食糖消费 食品工业 月度平衡关系 糖醇替代 糖浆进口 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]