空气污染与呼吸系统疾病发病率的关系分析  

The relationship of air pollution and respiratory diseases:Evidence from micro data of a hospital in Chongqing

作　　者：汪锋[1] 刘辛[1] WANG Feng;LIU Xin(School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《重庆大学学报》2021年第4期97-106,共10页Journal of Chongqing University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71973019);国家社会科学基金项(17BGL144);中央高校基本科研业务费(NO.2019CDSKXYJG0037)。

摘　　要：基于2013年1月至2018年12月重庆市某医院45 380个呼吸系统疾病确诊病例的微观数据,使用该医院多种呼吸系统疾病确诊量作为呼吸系统疾病发病率的代理变量,与中华人民共和国生态环境部公布的城市空气质量月度报告中的重庆市各类空气污染物的月均浓度指标进行匹配,使用计数数据泊松回归模型定量分析了城市空气质量与各类呼吸系统疾病发病率之间的统计关系。研究发现:空气污染是呼吸系统疾病发病的重要诱因,PM_(2.5)月均质量浓度增加1μg/m~3,支气管哮喘、慢性支气管炎、上呼吸系统感染、社区获得性肺炎、肺气肿、慢性阻塞性肺疾病平均确诊病例数量将提高约0.2%至1.1%。Based on the micro data of 45380 cases of respiratory diseases in a hospital from January 2013 to December 2018,this paper uses the Poisson regression model to analyze the statistical relationship between urban air quality and the incidence of various respiratory diseases.The confirmed amount of various respiratory diseases in the hospital was used as the proxy variable of the incidence of respiratory diseases and matched with the monthly average concentration index of various air pollution of Chongqing from the monthly report of urban air quality issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China.The results show that air pollution is an important inducement of respiratory diseases.When the monthly average concentration of PM 2.5 increases by 1μg/m^(3),the number of cases of bronchial asthma,chronic bronchitis,upper respiratory tract infection,community-acquired pneumonia,emphysema and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases will increase by 0.2%to 1.1%.

关 键 词：呼吸系统疾病 空气污染 泊松回归模型 

分 类 号：X18[环境科学与工程—环境科学]