地区分层效应下的残疾人就业影响因素研究——以S省为例  

A Research on the Factors Influencing the Employment of Disabled People Based on the Effect of Regional Stratification:Take S Province as an Example

作　　者：黎春兰 易莹莹 LI Chunlan;YI Yingying(School of Economics,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210046)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学经济学院,南京210046

出　　处：《现代特殊教育》2021年第4期20-28,共9页Modern Special Education

基　　金：江苏高校人文社会科学校外研究基地“残障与发展研究基地”(2017ZSJD011);2019年江苏高校境外研修计划;江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目“人力资本、社会资本对残疾人就业的影响”(2019SJA0547);2018年江苏省高等学校自然科学研究重大项目“中国残疾人发展数据库建设及应用”(18KJA520006)。

摘　　要：为了研究地区分层效应下残疾人的就业状况及其影响因素的重要程度,基于2017年全国残疾人基本服务状况和需求专项调查中的S省数据,选取基本人口学因素、家庭因素、社会环境因素等变量,引入地区分层变量,构建两水平Logistic回归模型对残疾人就业影响因素进行分析,并基于梯度提升决策树(GBDT)模型对影响因素进行重要性度量。研究结果表明,基本人口学因素对残疾人就业的影响作用最强,社会环境因素次之,家庭因素最弱。影响残疾人就业的因素中,重要性得分最高的前三位分别为受教育程度、残疾类型、年龄。地区分层效应下,受教育程度、家庭收入状况、家庭住房状况对残疾人就业具有显著正向作用,残疾等级、是否参加医疗保险对残疾人就业呈现负向作用。In order to study the employment status of persons with disabilities and the importance of their influencing factors under the effect of regional stratification,this paper selects variables such as basic demographic factors,family factors,and social environmental factors based on the data of S Province in the 2017 National Survey on Basic Services and Needs of Disabled Persons,and introduces regional stratification variables to build a two-level Logistic regression model to analyze the factors affecting employment of persons with disabilities,and to measure the importance of the factors based on the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT) model. The results of the study show that basic demographic factors have the strongest impact on the employment of persons with disabilities,followed by social environmental factors,and family factors are the weakest. Among the factors that affect the employment of the disabled,the top three with the highest importance scores are education level,type of disability,and age. Under the regional stratification effect,education level,family income status,and family housing status have a significant positive effect on the employment of the disabled,and the level of disability and whether to participate in medical insurance have negative effects on the employment of the disabled.

关 键 词：残疾人 就业影响因素 两水平Logistic模型 梯度提升决策树模型 重要性度量 

分 类 号：G760[文化科学—特殊教育学]