中国应对气候变化技术清单研究  

Research on China’s technology lists for addressing climate change

作　　者：王灿[1] 丛建辉[2] 王克[3] 祁悦 蔡闻佳[5] 李玉龙[6] 傅莎 王文涛[7] 魏媛媛 郑馨竺 蒋佳妮[10] 陈敏鹏 刘文玲 张永香[13] 田之滨 陈济 李锐[2] 左海清 WANG Can;CONG Jianhui;WANG Ke;QI Yue;CAI Wenjia;Li Yulong;FU Sha;WANG Wentao;WEI Yuanyuan;ZHENG Xinzhu;JIANG Jiani;CHEN Minpeng;LIU Wenling;ZHANG Yongxiang;TIAN Zhibing;CHEN Ji;LI Rui;ZUO Haiqing(School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanxi University,Taiyuan Shanxi 030006,China;School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation,Beijing 100038,China;Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling,Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21,Beijing 100038,China;Beijing Technology Innovation Service Center,Beijing 101101,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;Law School,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China;School of Agriculture and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;China Energy Saving Consulting Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100142,China;Rocky Mountain Institute,Beijing 100020,China;School of Foreign studies,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou Guangxi 545006,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [2]山西大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030006 [3]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100086 [4]国家气候战略中心,北京100035 [5]清华大学地球系统科学系地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100084 [6]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京102206 [7]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038 [8]北京市技术创新服务中心,北京101101 [9]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京102249 [10]中央民族大学法学院,北京100081 [11]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [12]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [13]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [14]中节能咨询有限公司,北京100142 [15]落基山研究所,北京100020 [16]广西科技大学外国语学院,广西柳州545006

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第3期1-12,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：科学技术部《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》编制工作专项。

摘　　要：应对气候变化技术清单(简称“气候技术清单”)的编制对于促进技术研发、示范、推广具有重要引导作用,对中国加强生态文明建设、实现碳达峰与碳中和目标、提升全球气候治理能力具有重要意义。文章首先对已有气候技术清单进行分类梳理,提出现有技术推广清单、技术需求清单、未来技术清单的划分框架;以此为基础集成不同方法和信息,提出了中国应对气候变化现有技术推广清单、中国减缓气候变化技术需求清单、中国应对气候变化关键核心技术清单、中国应对气候变化未来技术清单共4份技术清单,并从技术成熟度、减排成本、减排潜力、经济效益、社会影响、不确定性等方面对部分核心技术进行了分析。研究认为:中国重点行业和关键部门均已有较为成熟的减缓/适应技术作为实现应对气候变化目标的支撑,多部门协作推广气候友好型技术的体系已经建立且在发挥积极作用;气候技术需求集中在传统技术装备升级改造类技术、可再生能源技术和管理决策类支撑技术,关键核心技术集中在3大领域12个亟须突破的技术方向;关乎碳达峰、碳中和目标的深度减排/零碳排放技术和地球工程类技术(CDR和SRM)在未来全球减排格局中的作用备受关注,对其综合成本效益、技术融合方向、技术成熟度以及道德伦理、生态影响等方面不确定性程度的判断,关乎着国家技术战略方向。同时,针对中长期技术部署、提升技术转化率、促进关键核心技术研发、形成技术清单协同更新与发布机制等国家应对气候变化创新体系的重要环节,从多个角度提出了相关政策建议。The compilation of technology lists of addressing climate change has guiding effect on promoting technological research and development,demonstration and popularization.It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecological civilization construction,achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutral target,and enhance global climate governance capabilities.This study first proposes the existing classification outline of the technology promotion lists,technology demand lists and future technology lists.Then,different methodologies are integrated on the basis of the existing outline of four technology lists:China’s existing technological promotion list for addressing climate change,China’s demand list for climate change mitigation technology,China’s key technology list for addressing climate change,and China’s future technology list for addressing climate change.What’s more,core technologies are analyzed in the aspects of technology maturity,carbon reduction cost,carbon reduction potential,economic benefits,social influence,uncertainty,etc.The results show that:key industries and sectors in China already have relatively mature mitigation/adaptation technologies to support the achievement of climate change targets.The multi-sectoral system of promoting climate-friendly technologies has been established,which has played an active role in tackling climate change.Currently,climate technology needs are concentrated in the traditional technology and equipment upgrading,renewable energy technology and management decision-making support technology.The key technologies are concentrated in 3 major areas and 12 technological directions that urgently need a breakthrough.For carbon emmission peak and carbon nentrality,carbon depth reduction/zero carbon emissions and geoengineering technology(CDR and SRM)have played an important role in forming the structure of global emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in the future.Thus,the uncertainty assessment for the comprehensive technology cost-effectiveness,technology in

关 键 词：应对气候变化技术 技术清单 碳达峰 碳中和 关键核心技术 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X32