基于SP调查的市郊铁路出行选择意愿分析  

Analysis of the Willingness to Travel by Suburban Railway Based on the SP Survey

作　　者：仝硕 王书灵 孙福亮 初众甫 卢霄霄 TONG Shuo;WANG Shuling;SUN Fuliang;CHU Zhongfu;LU Xiaoxiao(Beijing Transport Institute,Beijing 100073,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通发展研究院,北京100073

出　　处：《交通工程》2021年第2期14-18,共5页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：开展市郊铁路出行选择意愿的量化分析,以指导市郊铁路的规划和运营.设计了意愿调查(SP调查)获取北京市居民在通勤目的下对市郊铁路的出行选择意愿,构建多项Logistic回归模型,分析了市郊铁路各特征属性对其选择概率的影响程度.结果显示,全程时间、发车间隔、换乘次数和费用对市郊铁路出行选择有显著影响,通过量化分析给出了市郊铁路规划和运营相关建议.The quantitative analysis of the intention to travel mode is of great significance to the planning and operation of suburban railway.A SP survey for commuting travel of citizens is carried out to attain the intention to suburban railway.The multiple logistic regression model is used to calibrate the utility and evaluate the choice probability with different value of traffic features.It is observed that the intention to suburban railway is obviously influenced by journey times,departure intervals,cost and number of transfers.The suggestions are summarized on the operation and management of suburban railway.

关 键 词：交通规划 市郊铁路 出行选择 SP调查 均匀设计 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程] U292.4