基于BP神经网络的酒泉市霜冻天气预测研究  

Prediction of Frost Weather in Jiuquan City Based on BP Neural Network

作　　者：王海燕 鲁岳 陈丽娜 WANG Haiyan;LU Yue;CHEN Lina(Jiuquan Meteorological Bureau,Jiuquan Gansu 735000)

机构地区：[1]酒泉市气象局,甘肃酒泉735000

出　　处：《河南科技》2021年第5期144-146,共3页Henan Science and Technology

摘　　要：本文利用2019年12月和2020年1月至11月气象观测资料、ECMWF再分析资料和“FY-4”陆表温度资料,基于BP神经网络对甘肃省酒泉市一次霜冻天气进行预报分析研究。研究表明:此次霜冻天气前期受到贝加尔湖西部冷槽影响使气温下降,后期乌拉尔山高压脊东移使天气转晴,冷平流及强辐射的共同影响是此次霜冻天气的主要原因;霜冻天气过程中,500 hPa最大北风带的建立、东移和南伸是一个极为重要的因素;基于BP原理,制作未来时刻的地面最低温度预报,确定此次霜冻天气过程的开始时间和影响范围,但霜冻天气预报对霜冻天气范围的计算有待提高。Based on the meteorological observation data in December 2019 and from January to November 2020,EC⁃MWF reanalysis data and"FY-4"land surface temperature data,a frost weather forecast in Jiuquan City of Gansu Province was analyzed and analyzed based on BP neural network.The results show that:in the early stage of the frost weather,the cold trough in the west of Baikal Lake made the temperature drop,and in the later stage,the high pres⁃sure ridge of Ural Mountain moved eastward to make the weather clear.The combined effect of cold advection and strong radiation is the main cause of the frost weather;in the process of frost weather,500 The establishment,east⁃ward movement and southward extension of HPA maximum north wind zone is a very important factor;based on BP principle,the ground minimum temperature forecast in the future is made to determine the start time and influence range of the frost weather process,but the calculation of frost weather range in frost weather forecast needs to be im⁃proved.

关 键 词：BP神经网络 酒泉市 霜冻天气 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]