基于DBN的水下地铁盾构施工安全风险动态演化分析  

DBN-based Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Safety Risk in Underwater Metro Shield Construction

作　　者：刘一鹏 王军武[1] 吴寒 LIU Yipeng;WANG Junwu;WU Han(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2021年第5期141-148,共8页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0704301);武汉市城乡建设局科技研究计划项目(201943)。

摘　　要：为了建立一个系统完备的水下地铁盾构施工安全风险指标体系,深入展开风险动态演化研究,采用WBS-RBS法从人、机、环、管4个角度建立了全过程风险指标体系,构建了基于动态贝叶斯网络(Dynamic Bayesian Network,DBN)的水下地铁盾构施工安全风险动态演化模型,结合风险随时间的概率变化过程,通过正向反向推理预测不同情况下风险的动态演化路径。将该模型应用于成都地铁案例分析,结果表明,由于水下地铁盾构需要穿越河道,穿越河道时在高水压环境下施工,环境风险发生的概率较大,环境风险的发生不仅在当前时间节点上对其他风险产生影响,在下一个时刻还会在后续施工中引起人员、机械等风险发生,最终导致风险事件的发生,分析结果与实际情况相符,证明了模型的正确性。通过定量分析风险的动态演化过程能为水下隧道盾构施工安全管理提供一个更符合实际的方法。In order to establish a systematic and complete safety risk index system for underwater metro shield construction,and carry out in-depth research on the dynamic evolution of risk,WBS-RBS method is used to establish a risk index system for the whole process in the perspective of human,machine,environment and management.A dynamic evolution model of safety risk for underwater subway shield construction is constructed based on Dynamic Bayesian Network(DBN).Combined with the probabilistic change process of risk with time,the risks in different situations are predicted by forward and reverse reasoning Dynamic evolution path.Applying this model to the case analysis of the Chengdu Metro,the results show that the probability of environmental risk is high when it is constructed under high water pressure due to the fact that the underwater metro shield needs to cross the river.The occurrence of environmental risk will not only affect other risks at the current time node,but also cause human,mechanical and other risks in the subsequent construction,which may finally lead to the occurrence of risk events.The consistence of analysis results with the actual situations proves the correctness of the model.The quantitative analysis of the dynamic evolution process of risk provides a more practical method for the safety management of underwater tunnel shield construction.

关 键 词：水下隧道 地铁盾构 安全风险 动态演化 动态贝叶斯网络 工作分解结构—风险分解结构 

分 类 号：U455.43[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U459.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]