南水北调中线工程左排渡槽防洪风险识别  

Identification of flood risk on left bank drainage aqueducts of South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project

作　　者：张启义[1,2] 姚秋玲[1,2] 丁留谦[1,2] 解家毕[1,2] ZHANG Qiyi;YAO Qiuling;DING Liuqian;XIE Jiabi(Research Center on Flood&Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2021年第3期112-121,共10页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405004);中国水科院专项(JZ0199012017)。

摘　　要：随着沿线社会经济的发展,南水北调中线工程的运行条件较原设计发生了一些变化,由此积聚了一定的防洪风险,比较典型的如一些左排渡槽发生了洪水漫槽入渠事件。针对左排渡槽的防洪风险问题,首先基于近年来已发生过的险情,并结合各管理处的工作经验,总结出了五类主要防洪风险事件;然后再利用故障树法分别识别了各类风险事件的风险因子,最终整理得到30个防洪风险因子。基于识别的风险因子,制订了详细的调查表,在对现状条件下所有左排渡槽的防洪风险因子进行详细调查的基础上,有针对性的提出了除险及防范措施。研究结果表明:当前引起左排渡槽防洪风险升高的风险因子主要是下游河道行洪能力不足及渡槽淤积、糙率增加造成的渡槽本身泄洪能力减小,其中,引起下游河道行洪能力不足的主要原因是阻水建筑物、河床抬升、河宽不足及河道糙率增大。With the development of social economy along South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, the operation condition of it is somewhat changed if compared with the original design, from which certain flood control risks are gathered, e.g. some typical events of flood overflowing from several left bank drainage aqueducts into the main water transferring channel. Aiming at the problems of the flood control risk on the left bank drainage aqueducts, five kinds of main flood control risk events are summarized at first based on the working experiences from all the management offices concerned and the dangerous situations ever occurred in recent years, and then the risk factors related to all kinds of the risk events are identified with Fault Tree Method, thus 30 flood control risk factors are finally sorted out. Based on the identified risk factors, a detailed questionnaire is made, and then the relevant danger-elimination and preventive measures are targetedly put forward on the basis of detailed investigation of flood control risk factors of all the left bank drainage aqueducts under the current operation conditions. The study results show that the main risk factors for the increase of the flood control risk are the insufficient flood discharging capacity of the downstream river channel and the decrease of the flood discharge capacity of the aqueducts caused by siltation and the increase of roughness, in which the main causes for the insufficient flood discharging capacity of the downstream river channel are water blocking structures, riverbed raise, insufficient width and increase of river channel roughness.

关 键 词：南水北调中线工程 左排渡槽 防洪风险 故障树法 风险事件 风险因子 除险措施 洪水 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]