突破性科学创新早期识别研究综述  

A Review on Early Identification of Science Breakthrough

作　　者：许海云 刘亚辉[3,4] 罗瑞 Xu Haiyun

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255049 [2]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038 [3]中国科学院成都文献情报中心,四川成都610041 [4]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院图书情报与档案管理系,北京100190

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2021年第4期198-205,共8页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于科学—技术主题关联分析的创新演化路径识别方法研究”(项目编号:71704170);国家重点研发计划项目课题“颠覆性技术地平线扫描系统”(项目编号:2019YFA0707202-01);中国科学院“十三五”信息化项目“面向干细胞领域知识发现的科研信息化应用”(项目编号:XXH13506)的成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]比较突破性创新主题的不同识别方法,总结现有方法存在的问题,论证基础研究中突破性创新早期识别的可行性,分析当前主要识别方法的优缺点。[方法/过程]首先,综述突破性创新的概念、内涵与主要特征;其次,以量变到质变的视角论证突破性创新过程中的连续性与间断性,论述突破性创新早期识别的可能性。通过划分突破性创新生命周期中不同阶段及各阶段信息可获取性,界定"早期识别"。在此基础上,归纳当前6种主要的突破性创新识别方法,总结这些方法存在的主要问题。[结果/结论]突破性创新在理论上可以实现早期识别,当前的识别方法侧重热点监测而非早期识别,缺乏对突破性创新孕育与产生机理的研究,并且对弱关系的挖掘分析尚不够充分。未来识别方法需要深入突破性创新的产生机制,重视突破性创新的动态演化过程,以捕捉有效的突破性创新早期弱信号。[Purpose/significance] To compare the identification methods of different science breakthrough topics, summarize the issues of extant methods, demonstrate the feasibility of early identification of breakthrough in basic research, and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the current identification methods.[Method/process] Firstly, we summarize the concept, connotation and main characteristics of breakthrough;secondly, discuss the possibility of early identification of science breakthrough by discussing the continuity and discontinuity of science breakthrough, leap and gradual change, and qualitative change method and process.By dividing the different phases of the science breakthrough and the information availability, "early recognition" is defined.On this basis, the current six major science breakthrough identification methods are summarized, and the main issues extant in these methods are refined.[Result/conclusion] Theoretically, science breakthrough can be used for early identification.Current identification methods lack the research on the breeding and generation mechanism of science breakthrough, focusing on hot spot research topic monitoring rather than early identification, and the weak relation mining analysis is not sufficient.Future identification methods require in-depth understanding of the generation mechanism of science breakthrough, capture effective early weak signals, and pay attention to its dynamic evolution process.

关 键 词：突破性创新 早期识别 变革性创新 颠覆性创新 识别方法 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]