RCEP成员国数字技术对贸易成本的影响研究--基于双边贸易流量历史数据的考察与分析  

The Impact of Digital Technology on Trade Cost in RCEP Member Countries:Investigation and Analysis Based on Historical Data of Bilateral Trade Flow

作　　者：吴中庆 戴明辉[2] WU Zhong-qing;DAI Ming-hui(Institute of World Economy,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China;School of International Business and Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330077,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200020 [2]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,南昌330077

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2021年第3期18-35,共18页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“要素价格扭曲与中国出口制造业转型升级:理论机制与实证检验”(项目编号:72064016)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以RCEP成员国数字技术兴起对贸易成本的影响效应为研究对象,以2002~2017年期间双边贸易历史数据为研究样本,选用面板固定效应模型进行考察与分析。研究发现:⑴数字技术对贸易成本具有显著的负向影响,在考虑内生性问题以及稳健性检验后,这一结论依然成立;⑵随着时间的推移,数字技术对贸易成本的负向影响逐渐减弱但减速放慢;⑶出口规模较大的国家,其数字技术负向影响贸易成本的作用程度表现出“反直觉”的减弱趋势。进一步研究发现:出口规模具有弱化数字技术负向影响贸易成本的调节效应,其原因是通过数字经济发展引起国内贸易的增长超过国际贸易,说明数字经济对“内循环”的贡献超过“外循环”。本文深化研究了RCEP成员国数字技术的贸易成本效应,引申出要在区域内促进数字技术应用和跨境数据流通等规则启示。This paper takes the impact of the rise of digital technology on trade cost of RCEP member countries as the research object,takes the historical data of bilateral trade from 2002 to 2017 as the research sample,and carries out the investigation and analysis by panel fixed effect model.The results show that:(1)digital technology has a signifi cant negative impact on trade cost,which is still true after considering the endogenous problem and robustness test;(2)with the passage of time,the negative impact of digital technology on trade costs gradually weakened,but slowed down;(3)the negative impact of digital technology on trade cost of countries with large export scale shows a"counterintuitive"weakening trend.Further research shows that the export scale has the moderating effect of weakening the negative impact of digital technology on trade cost,the reason is that the growth of domestic trade exceeds that of international trade through the development of digital economy,which indicates that the contribution of digital economy to"internal circulation"exceeds that of"external circulation".This paper deeply studies the trade cost effect of digital technology in RCEP member countries,and extends the Enlightenment of rules to promote the application of digital technology and crossborder data circulation in the region.

关 键 词：RCEP 数字技术 贸易成本 规模效应 数字经济 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]