中国低碳经济发展的时空特征及驱动因子研究  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of China’s Low Carbon Economic Development

作　　者：石建屏[1] 李新[2] 罗珊 史科 邱珈庆 SHI Jianping;LI Xin;LUO Shan;SHI Ke;QIU Jiaqing(Department of Materials Engineering,Mianyang Occupation Technical College,Mianyang 621000,China;School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Mianyang Teachers’College,Mianyang 621000,China)

机构地区：[1]绵阳职业技术学院材料工程系,四川绵阳621000 [2]绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,四川绵阳621000

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2021年第1期228-236,共9页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：四川省社会科学重点研究基地-四川县域经济发展研究中心项目(xy2020028);四川省社会科学重点研究基地-四川县域经济发展研究中心项目(XY2019014)。

摘　　要：为评估中国低碳经济发展水平,该文测算了2008-2017年能源消费碳排放量和碳排放强度,采用Tapio理论判定经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态,分析低碳经济的时空演变特征及省际间、产业间的差异性;应用LMDI模型分解碳排放的影响因素,分析驱动因子的贡献率,提出节能减排及低碳发展的对策。结果表明:2008-2017年碳排放量增加到25.28亿t,增长26.65%,呈小幅度波动状态;碳强度逐年下降,由750 kg/万元(以C计)降至480 kg/万元,达到生态文明建设的重点开发区指标;2015、2016年为强脱钩的理想状态。产业间低碳发展差异性较大,其中工业碳排放占82.82%,碳强度为740 kg/万元;批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业碳排放仅占0.94%,碳强度为20 kg/万元。华东、华南地区碳排放分别为最高和最低,山东、海南省分别为最高和最低;西北、华南地区碳强度分别为最高和最低,宁夏区、北京市分别为最高和最低;经济发展水平对省际间的脱钩状态影响较大,需要制定促进西部地区低碳发展的政策。经济增长和能源强度分别是促进和抑制碳排放的最大驱动因子;采取改善能源结构、提高利用效率、发展低碳产业、提倡低碳生活的对策。In order to evaluate the development level of China’s low-carbon economy, the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of energy consumption from 2008 to 2017 were calculated. Tapio theory was used to determine the decoupling status of economic growth and carbon emissions. The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of low-carbon economy and the differences between provinces and industries were analyzed. LMDI model was used to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emissions, and the contribution rate of driving factors was analyzed, and energy conservation as well as countermeasures for emission reduction and low carbon development was proposed. The results show that from2008 to 2017, carbon emissions increased to 2.528 billion tons, an increase of 26.65%, showing a small fluctuation state;carbon intensity decreased yearly, from 750 kg/(10^(4) yuan) to 480 kg/(10^(4) yuan), reaching the key development zone index of ecological civilization construction. In 2015 and 2016, it was the ideal state of strong decoupling. There are great differences in low-carbon development among industries, among which industrial carbon emission accounts for 82.82%,and carbon intensity is 740 kg/(10^(4) yuan);carbon emission of wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering industry only accounts for 0.94%, and carbon intensity is 20 kg/(10^(4) yuan). The results show that East China and South China have the highest and lowest carbon emissions, Shandong and Hainan provinces have the highest and lowest carbon intensity;the highest and the lowest carbon intensity is in Northwest and South China, while Ningxia and Beijing have the highest and lowest carbon intensity, respectively. The level of economic development has a great influence on the decoupling state between provinces, so it is necessary to formulate policies to promote the low-carbon development in the western region.Economic growth and energy intensity are the biggest driving factors to promote and suppress carbon emissions, respectively.Measures should be

关 键 词：低碳经济 时空特征 脱钩状态 LMDI模型 驱动因子 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]