城镇化率在电力需求预测中的应用分析  

Application Analysis of Urbanization Rate in Power Demand Forecasting

作　　者：罗文雲 王浩 何向刚[1] 刘文霞[1] 钟以林[1] LUO Wen-yun;WANG Hao;HE Xiang-gang;LIU Wen-xia;ZHONG Yi-lin(Power Grid Planning Research Center Guizhou Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550003,China;Guiyang Power Supply Bureau Guizhou Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州电网公司电网规划研究中心,贵州贵阳550003 [2]贵州电网有限责任公司贵阳供电局,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《电力勘测设计》2021年第5期62-66,共5页Electric Power Survey & Design

摘　　要：分析城镇化发展对电力消费的影响,以贵州省城镇化率与全社会用电量历史数据为例,从历史数据选取、数据处理等方面分析其相关性,提出一种全社会用电量预测模型,采用SPSSAU软件对数据进行线性回归分析,计算得出全社会用电量预测值,并对比分析预测值与实际值,得出该模型具有一定的预判能力。This article first analyzes the impact of urbanization development on power consumption,and takes the historical data of Guizhou Province’s urbanization rate and the electricity consumption of the whole society as an example,analyzes its correlation from historical data selection,data processing,etc.,and proposes a kind of social use.The electricity forecasting model uses SPSSAU software to perform linear regression analysis on the data,calculates the forecasted value of electricity consumption in the whole society,and compares and analyzes the forecasted value with the actual value.It is concluded that the model has a certain predictive ability.

关 键 词：城镇化率 电力消费 负荷预测 电网规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]