四川省区域经济差异时空特征多尺度分析  

A Multi-scalar Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Regional Economic Diversity in Sichuan Province

作　　者：邓小菲[1] 韩剑萍[1] DENG Xiaofei;HAN Jianping(School of Resource and Environment Engineering, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang, Sichuan 621006)

机构地区：[1]绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,四川绵阳621006

出　　处：《绵阳师范学院学报》2021年第5期101-107,共7页Journal of Mianyang Teachers＇ College

基　　金：四川县域经济发展研究中心项目(xy2017030);绵阳师范学院自然科学项目(2012A02).

摘　　要：为了促进区域协调发展,针对四川省域经济差异缺乏时空特征多尺度对比分析问题.利用GDP、人均GDP和常住人口数据,运用泰尔系数、相对人均GDP和马尔科夫预测法,在经济区、地级市(州)和县域三级尺度上分析了1998-2018年四川省区域经济差异时空特征.结果表明不同空间尺度经济差异具有空间异质性和时序变化的复杂性.空间尺度越小,总体经济差异越大,具体表现为县域>市域>经济区.不同尺度的经济差异格局呈现不同核心的中心—外围结构.区域内部差异和区际差异对总差异的贡献程度因尺度不同而不同,呈阶段性时序变化.四川省经济结构稳定且具有长期性.未来30年县域经济呈缓速下降趋势,而地级市(州)和经济区经济将维持现状.In order to promote the regional coordinated development,multi-scale comparative method is used to analyze the problem of insufficient spatial and temporal characteristics of regional economic diversity in Sichuan Province.Based on the data of GDP,per capita GDP and resident population,this paper uses Theil coefficient,relative per capita GDP and Markov prediction method are used to analyze at three dimensions of eonomic zone,prefecture-level city and county from 1998 to 2018:The results show that the economic disparities of different spatial scales have spatial heterogeneity and temporal complexity.The smaller the spatial scale is,the greater the overall economic difference is,which is represented as the county>city>economic zone.The pattern of economic disparities with different scales presents different core-periphery structures.The contribution of intra-regional differences and inter-regional differences to the total differences varied with different scales and presented a phased temporal change.The economic structure of Sichuan Province is stable and long-term.In the next 30 years,the county economy will slow down,while the prefecture-level city and the regional differences are long-lasting.

关 键 词：区域经济差异 空间异质性 时空 多尺度 四川省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F119.9